Like many of my friends, and indeed perhaps half of the
nation, I was in shock and depression after the Trump victory. I felt a bit of apprehension before it
occurred, but I discounted the close polling as somehow reflective only of the
normal liberal conservative divide, and believed that many of the conservatives
would in the end find it impossible to vote for a man such as Donald Trump,
even if they could not vote for Clinton.
I was wrong.
So what does it all mean and how will things go on from
here? Much has been written about how
Trump managed to win over so many white voters.
Upon reflection it seems fairly simple to me. One portion of the Trump supporters embraced
him as an unapologetic voice against progressive values. They want immigration trends reversed and
illegal immigrants deported; they believe African-Americans must take responsibility
for their own problems; they believe climate change is a left wing conspiracy;
they think Obama has weakened the US in international affairs; they want to
roll back entitlements; and they want to eliminate Obamacare.
These are the people that would have voted for any republican
nominee, even an axe-murderer. They
would not be deterred by major character flaws in their candidate, no matter
how egregious they might be. Indeed, the
flamboyant and bellicose character of Trump excited them and whipped them into
a frenzy of giving the middle finger to the ‘system’ and voicing a newfound joy
of political incorrectness!
The other large group of Trump supporters crossed over from
the labor union side of the democratic party.
They were seduced by Trump’s claim to know how to ‘fix’ the
economy. Out of desperation, they were
ready to be true believers. And sadly,
they too found the racist, xenophobic, and even the misogynistic rantings of
Trump somewhat appealing. They had
previously embraced liberal leaders only because the democrats had established
themselves as the friend of labor. The
sad state of the middle class in the current economy severed those bonds and
left them adrift where they were easy prey for a demagogue. Disruption is inevitable in times of
transition.
The last group, smaller but decisive, was the independents
who held their noses and voted for Trump because they had become convinced that
Hillary Clinton was not to be trusted and they believed the false (in my
opinion) equivalencies drawn between Trump and Clintons’ flaws, transgressions
and character. The Hillary hate campaign
was incredibly effective in this regard.
Combine all of this with a heavy dose of apathy in the
African American community – almost a sense of fatalism – and voila, Trump
wins!
There are many potential ramifications of this result. With a republican congress generally
supporting him, Trump can impact a lot of things fairly quickly – immigration,
energy and environmental policy, financial regulations and some foreign policy
decisions (Iran, Syria, Cuba). We can
only hope that the damage is temporary and not cataclysmic.
But ironically, the most important issue for his supporters,
and the one that really powered Trump into the White House – the economy – will
likely be much more resistant to change.
Even if he is able to enact tariffs on certain trading partners – and this
is not something that the congress will necessarily greet with enthusiasm, free
trade being a long-held Republican ideal – their impact could very possibly be
negative rather than positive, i.e. make consumer goods more expensive without
bringing back jobs.
People are generally clueless about the economy. It is simply too complex for the average
citizen to understand in any deep way.
Even the most respected economists differ greatly on how to address
macroeconomic issues. A country is VERY
different from a business. The belief
that Trump’s success as a businessman, which is certainly not a
universally-accepted fact in itself, will translate into success for the
national economy is simplistic almost to the point of self-delusion. The last much-heralded titan of business who
entered the White House was Herbert Hoover, and his commercial genius ushered
in the Great Depression!
Trump’s best hope for economic success is probably deficit
spending in the form of vastly overdue infrastructure improvements. Obama has been trying to promote such improvements
throughout his tenure as President with little success because of the gridlock
in congress and the fear of the growing national debt. But now that it is a conservative idea, it
may get some traction . . . .
The sad truth is that middle class manufacturing jobs are
unlikely ever to return in great numbers.
The automation and globalization genies are out of the bottle and no
amount of demagoguery will put them back.
We face a brave new post-industrial world in the labor market, and we
will probably have to go through a lot more pain before we evolve into a
sensible new order that will not leave millions out in the cold.
So good luck Trump! I
really do wish you well. Not because I
have even the slightest admiration for you as a person. I believe the way you ascended to the
Presidency is the most pathetic spectacle I have witnessed in U.S. political
life. I wish you well because I want our
nation to survive and, ultimately, to thrive.
It will most likely have to do that in spite of your leadership and
policies rather than because of them.
But if it does I will be happy, even if it means that your petty but
gargantuan ego can lay claim to having saved the republic.
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