Space Dreams

Yesterday, the NASA expedition Artemis II successfully launched, initiating a new era in US lunar exploration by humans rather than unmanned missions.  What are we to make of this new phase?  

I was 15 years old when Neil Armstrong walked on the moon.  It was super exciting watching it on TV.  Two years later I was in Florida at Cape Canaveral with my father to watch the liftoff of the Apollo 16 mission.  My father was intimately involved in space missions as a director of the National Reconnaissance Organization, a top-secret group that built spy satellites starting in the 60’s.

I had two experiences with the subsequent Space Shuttle program.  The first was when my wife’s uncle, Karl Henize, an astronomy professor astronaut, flew as the mission specialist on Challenger in 1985, at that time the oldest person to go into space. The second was watching in horror from the roof of my company in Melbourne, Florida, as the Challenger exploded 73 seconds after launch in 1986.

The history of human exploration is a fascinating one - the challenges and risks, the technology, the courage.  To the extent it embodies a quest for knowledge and experience, it is a wonderful and admirable human quality.  But, of course, it has also been strongly associated with some of the worst human traits – greed, violence and conquest.

This new phase of lunar exploration and potential colonization comes over 50 years after the first visits to the moon.  The motivation seems to be primarily competition and fear of losing ground to other nations.  In recent years China, Russia and India have all announced their lunar projects.  These include establishing lunar bases (China has termed it an International Lunar Research Station) at the South Pole to take advantage of water sources and extended sunlight.  China and Russia will potentially partner to install a nuclear power plant.

There is real potential for conflict as nations jockey for position on the moon.  Can competing nations conduct their operations without resorting to violence?  If history is any judge, then the answer is no.  Every past exploration saw nations battling endlessly to gain advantage.  The only exception has been the exploration of the Antarctica, which is presumably because to date there has been little material advantage in that exploration.

But aside from the potential future conflicts between increasingly antagonistic nations, there is the nagging question of whether we earth inhabitants can justify reaching for the stars when we have so many problems to solve on our own planet.  The resources and riches required to conduct space missions are prodigious.  Can we in good conscience dedicate that wealth to our space dreams when disease and poverty hover over billions of earthlings and climate change and pollution threaten the lives of everyone?

Alas, that question will never be seriously pondered, because space conquest, like war, AI and the re-invigorated arms race, is inevitable.  Fear and hubris, in equal measure, are the inertial drivers that no force of good will or love seems to be able to counteract.  

I admire the ingenuity and curiosity that enable us to explore our universe, and I will be fascinated by the various stages of accomplishment and the new discoveries that occur, regardless of which nation succeeds.  If we could only abandon warfare and the wasteful arms race and work together in these endeavors, I would be doubly proud of their successes.  But I cannot unreservedly praise our space quest when it must ultimately divert attention and resources away from much more urgent human needs on this earth.

The Importance of Fully Comprehending

The mechanics of mathematics and arithmetic came easily to me.  I was one of three kids who were put into algebra in 8th grade at my middle school and I took calculus my senior year in high school with about twenty other kids. Yes, I know that isn’t even close to being remarkable today, but at the time it was pretty advanced!

But I was also a bit on the lazy side as far as schoolwork goes, and though I quickly learned the mechanics of solving problems and achieved good scores, I never bothered to fully comprehend the theory and deeper meaning of the mathematical concepts.  Once I arrived in college I struggled initially to keep up with the math, physics and engineering courses because of this superficial level of competency in mathematics. 

Over time I began to see the folly of my approach to learning.  I had thought I was clever when I could utilize something quickly without much effort, but I was missing the heart of the matter.  It took me a few years, but I finally realized both the necessity and the joy of fully comprehending subjects, of digging deep to master the theory, not just the basic functional pieces.

This very human tendency to acquire knowledge at a superficial level and assume one has sufficient mastery of a topic is at the heart of some of the discord we have in our society and world at large.  The Internet and AI have exacerbated this phenomenon.  People look at a YouTube or Instagram video, or read the AI-generated summary of a topic or event and assume they have ‘researched’ it sufficiently to form a strong opinion.  

Truly understanding the complex questions our society and world face requires a significant investment of time and energy.  Few have the discipline or even the desire to make that investment.  Gaining a decent comprehension of history, economics, psychology, sociology, science and politics requires both energetic inquiry and critical thinking.  

Critical thinking is the skill necessary to investigate and weigh the pros and cons of different points of view or theories in order to make a judgment about a topic.  Some subjects are not easy to fully comprehend, but once the effort is made the meaning is very clear.  Mathematics and much of the physical sciences lie in this domain.  Some scientific work has political implications and may be disputed or have varying theories (climate change, epidemiology, cosmology, vaccines, etc.) but careful analysis and resisting the tendency toward confirmation bias can help illuminate the most likely truth.

Other topics outside of math and hard science are more prone to misunderstanding or oversimplification. In interpretating history and politics one is often seduced by superficial readings and the mythology of one’s childhood or prevailing social conventions.  A healthy skepticism and determination to read more deeply will help render a more nuanced and accurate portrayal.

If more people in our society would strive to fully comprehend the critical issues of our times and avoid making superficial judgments, perhaps the partisanship and rancor would diminish somewhat.  I am not optimistic that the current trends in social media and AI will do anything to improve matters, but I would be happy to be proven wrong!

The Meaning and Purpose of Life

At various times in my life, I have put some effort into contemplating the big questions: What is the meaning of life?  Is there a purpose to our lives? And like everyone else who ponders this question (and is completely honest), I came away with a handful of platitudes and not much conviction.

There is meaning in the love I have for my family and friends and the times we’ve shared.  There is meaning in the work I have done.  There is meaning in the sports I have played and the hobbies I have pursued and the subjects I have studied.  There is meaning in the efforts I have made to become a better person – more generous, less judgmental, more at peace with myself and the world (still much to be done in those realms!).  There is meaning in my search for meaning.

 

As for purpose, I really struggle to come up with much at all.  A religious person would say that our purpose is to glorify God and to worship God with all of our being.  And they might add that they are also to love their neighbor as themselves.  However, amidst the disharmony of our current world, I would be surprised if most of the religious people would not find themselves choking on those words and reddening in the sheer hypocrisy of their claim.

 

I would be happy for there to be a loving higher spirit and world that is somehow tied into our lives, but I find the concept of a God whose main motivation for creating us is to be worshiped quite absurd.

 

At times I have thought rather guiltily that my purpose should be to help others and make the world a better place.  I have intermittently acted on this thought, but on balance my purpose has been much more oriented toward my own happiness, experiences and interests.  I don’t know whether this is a major character flaw or simply the way that life tends to lead us.  If there is reincarnation and I end up as an insect in the next life, then I will know the answer.

 

Luck has played a big role in my life.  I was lucky to be born in the middle class of the richest nation in a loving family with wonderful parents.  I was lucky to have gifts and talents that outweighed the challenges of health that have sometimes plagued me. I was lucky to find a partner and a host of friends that have enriched my life.  I know that not everyone is so lucky.

 

I am in the last quarter or fifth or sixth or even tenth of my life, depending on how my luck holds out.  I am not at all ready to check into the dirt hotel, as a friend likes to say.  Still, I am quite grateful for the life I have had and would not have cause to complain if my life did not extend much longer.  But this is by no means a fatalistic acquiescence in the face of health challenges.  I plan to fight like hell to live as long as I can and have as much time with my wife, children, grandchildren and friends as possible.

 

So, meaning and purpose, not totally clear, and not likely to get much clearer in the future.  Time flies and memories fade, but each new day brings new opportunities for joy, laughter and love.  And those are meaning and purpose enough.

Prediction Markets, Lotteries and the Sickness of Gambling

Polls are out and prediction markets are in.   The fact that over 90% of polling calls and texts are ignored, along with recent epic fails by polls (the first Trump victory, BREXIT), have taken much of the luster from the polling world.  Instead, new platforms that allow people to gamble on predictions are apparently becoming the gold standard for indicating likely outcomes of almost anything.

The argument is that when people put money behind something it is more meaningful and more likely to be true.  I’m not sure that I buy that, but the hype is so strong that prediction gambling has quickly become a multi-billion-dollar business.

 

I have almost no interest in gambling, so it mystifies me that so many people love it.  I have always equated gambling with an unseemly human interest in get-rich schemes and wanting something for nothing.

 

I understand that gambling has elements of a competitive game and that we are all programmed to enjoy challenging ourselves in various ways against other players or against a system.  The classic weekly poker game that so many people seem to enjoy is fairly benign, as it usually involves small sums of money and a lot of social interaction and drinking.

 

However, gambling online, at casinos, horse tracks and the like or purchasing lottery tickets or day-trading on the stock exchange is often a sickness, an addiction.  Granted, there are many who enjoy this type of activity and have the means to do it without serious ramifications.  They may even profit from it.

 

But the vast majority of gamblers are people who lose and may even lose big and whose gambling is a heavy or even catastrophic burden for themselves and their families.  A report by the federally initiated National Gambling Impact Study Commission (sadly, only as recent as 1999) indicated that the top 10% of lottery spenders account for 2/3 of the sales and are heavily weighted toward high school dropouts and people of color.  Even more damning is the fact that the popular lottery-funded scholarships such as Georgia’s HOPE scholarship are much more likely to be won by white middle- and upper-class students than the children of low-income families who actually account for the majority of the ticket purchases.

 

I am no expert in the psychology of gambling, but it is reasonable to assume that poor people are more susceptible to the lure of gambling because of the tantalizing prospect of solving their myriad money problems in one lucky pick.

 

The huge recent increase in sports gambling and more generally, prediction gambling, is troubling.  There is a slippery slope between betting on something to occur and acting to make sure that it does occur.  The dangers of both insider knowledge and insider influence are not difficult to imagine. 

 

These new gambling paradigms and the endless opportunism they reflect are one more sad reminder of how human beings are moving ever more rapidly away from promoting the good and the salutary in the economy.  The get-rich-quick mania and its mirror image, the desperate hope for instant relief, are signs of a sick society.    I hope and pray that the sobering events in the world today will prompt new ambitions for the greater good.

The Dilemma and Risk of Unilaterally Pursuing Regime Changes

Sadly, the world has many tyrants and many brutal regimes.  They range from the merely repressive to outright murderous.  They typically share some characteristics – an authoritarian leader, a powerful military that wields too much political power, a political and business class that becomes fabulously wealthy by stealing and squandering most of the resources and riches the country produces, a total control of the media, and a police state security apparatus that obliterates all opposition.

After World War Two, the USA led an effort to create a rules-based order of nations with the express intent of avoiding future catastrophic conflict between nations.  The result, the United Nations was created and given the task and the prerogative to act to prevent war.  But understandably, it was expressly forbidden to interfere in domestic affairs of sovereign nations.  The only exception to this is when domestic issues threaten the security or peace of other nations.

 

There are sovereign nations that most of the world would agree are horribly dysfunctional and repressive.  Their people are suffering and their leaders are tyrants and criminals.  Individual nations and the UN can attempt to influence these rogue states through economic and diplomatic actions, but the international community cannot intercede militarily unless that nation is threatening world peace.  

 

This is the sad dilemma of regime change by the international community.  As tragic and horrible as many world regimes are, they must ultimately be toppled or reformed from within.  There is a certain logic to this.  Regime changes from outside a nation are ultimately invasions and have rarely resulted in a stable democratic government.  One has only to look at Afghanistan and Iraq after the interminable wars and attempted nation-building by the USA and other NATO allies to see the folly of this type of meddling in other nations’ affairs.

 

Where would one start?  Myanmar is a horror show.  The whole Sudan area is in desperate need of new government.  Multiple African nations are disasters. North Korea has both nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles besides being an incredibly repressive regime.  

 

In theory, if a rogue regime is acting to endanger world peace, the UN could assemble an international military force to confront that threat under the principle of collective security.  This was done in the case of Korea and in Iraq in 1990. (An asterisk must be assigned to Korea, as the Soviet Union, a security council member, was absent from the UN at that time in protest of the Peoples Republic of China not being admitted).  But the interpretation of what poses a threat to collective security varies dramatically among UN members and it is very difficult to gain consensus for such actions.  This is frustrating, but consensus it is at the heart of a rules-based order and actions without it pose a huge risk of future conflict.

 

When the USA acts unilaterally to depose or assassinate the head of a regime, as it has recently done in Venezuela and Iran and is threatening to do in Cuba, or undertakes large scale military action without any support of the international community, it sets a precedent that can only lead to other flagrant violations by other nations.  Indeed, Russia must be delighted at recent events.  

 

The USA may be powerful enough both militarily and economically to impose its will in the short term, but other nations are fast approaching the point where they too may decide to act unilaterally in what they see as their best interests.  China, India, Russia, Pakistan and others all have their scores to settle.  The Trumpian future looks rather grim.

The Myth of the Incredibly Dangerous Iran

One of the primary reasons for Israel and the USA to attack Iran was to neutralize the incredible threat that it posed to the rest of the world and to Israel and the USA specifically.  Well let’s take a look at how dangerous Iran was.

As of March 8^th, the USA and Israel have murdered a host of top Iranian officials, bombed a school, destroyed most of Iran’s navy, and killed well over 1400 people, most of whom are civilians.  They have also severely damaged much of Iran’s military infrastructure as well many industrial complexes and oil refineries.

 

What has that highly dangerous Iran managed to do to Israel and the USA?  So far, it appears that 6 American soldiers have been killed and 11 Israelis.  Thousands of rockets and drones from Iran have essentially accomplished nothing.  In the face of the vast military and intelligence might of the USA and Israel, Iran is more or less impotent. 

 

Wow!  Good thing we started a major war, spent billions of dollars, created a potential oil crisis, justified any future arbitrary, unilateral military actions by other nations and further damaged our reputation in the world to stop this incredibly dangerous foe!  

 

Trump and Hegseth are like adolescent boys, chest-thumping and bragging about a military triumph that is so one-side it is ridiculous.  Sure, no one likes the Iranian regime.  But who is really going to suffer in both the short and the long term?  The Iranian people, of course.

 

The premise for this war was absurd from the start.  And it is all the more idiotic when one thinks about the legacy of American military actions in the past 50-60 years.  Shame on us!

Donald Trump: People’s Republic of China Hero

I can picture the banners and the murals.  Sometime in the near future the pantheon of heroic figures that China will revere will certainly include Donald Trump.  China was on the road to superpower status but for the first 15 years of the 21^st century the road looked long and difficult.  Then came Donald.

The list of the Chinese people’s exalted heroes will include Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai of course.  And Xi Jinping will naturally be on an equal level with the founders.  There will also be other heroes of communism – Lenin, Stalin, perhaps Trotsky, Castro, Che Guevara, Ho Chi Minh.  The one capitalist addition to the list will be Trump for having single-handedly ensured China’s ascendancy to stand-alone world power and economic dominance.

 

Trump’s chaotic, arbitrary and punitive tariff policy, his bullying treatment and alienation of allies, his idiotic military strikes and wars, his cruel and extreme immigrant policies, his short-sighted disengagement from all international efforts to fight climate change and protect international health, his petulant cessation of renewable energy technology development, and his endless posturing, threatening and bragging will have diminished both the hard and soft power of the USA beyond repair.

 

As King George sang in Hamilton: Oceans rise, empires fall.  Some fall faster than others though, and some shoot themselves in the foot to hasten their downfall.  Trump has set the wheels in motion for China to surge past the USA on all fronts.  China’s rise was inevitable given its size and its highly educated and motivated workforce, but a wiser US president would have created a relationship with China and the rest of the world that could benefit all. 

 

In the winner-take-all Trumpian-imagined dystopia, the USA is fast becoming a pariah.  The Chinese won’t miss this opportunity and perhaps the world will be better off for it.  China may be authoritarian and a bit on the pushy side, but at least its leader appears to not be a narcissistic lunatic.  

 

It’s not too early to get the Chinese students and party members working on Trump posters and banners.  We know how much Donald loves adoration.  He’ll be delighted.