It is accepted wisdom that all technological advances have their pros and cons. It is my goal in this thought piece to analyze the potential impact of AI over the coming years and to predict both the benefits and the possible negative consequences that will one might expect.
The last few years have heralded the arrival of AI with incredible fanfare, and there has been a fierce competition to see who can most dramatically proclaim its future impact – “bigger than the computer”, “bigger than the transistor”, “bigger than the steam engine”, “bigger than fire”!
The progress made in recent years in AI has indeed been remarkable, particularly in electric vehicles and in generative AI applications like chatGPT. The technology is still in its infancy, but has already proven itself a rather precocious toddler. We are only just starting to investigate the possible applications of this technology and if, like other technologies, it has the exponential growth in power and scope that one might expect, then it will indeed change the world in ways that we cannot even imagine now.
AI will probably be employed on a professional, industrial and personal level to save time and labor, much like earlier technologies. There are many jobs that can be completely eliminated by AI devices or applications and there are others where AI will augment or assist. Giving people more free time is seen as a worthy goal for technology, and certainly the march of human progress in technology has freed people from much of the drudgery of the past.
But is there a point at which displacing human labor, effort and creativity becomes detrimental? In the early industrial revolution, the replacement of skilled trades by machines sparked the Luddite movement, whose members protested and destroyed machines as they saw their wages decrease and their skills become obsolete.
We may view the replacement of assembly line workers by robots as a salutary advance because assembly line work is mind-numbing, but will more engaging, so-called ‘knowledge jobs’ actually be created? Won’t AI actually be able to do much of that knowledge work with little guidance or input from humans?
And if one argues that AI will simply reduce the overall amount of human work necessary to produce the things we need, there are two interesting questions that arise. One, will society prove capable of dividing up the remaining work in a way that allows everyone to participate and receive their share of the benefits?
And two, once we are relieved of the burden of working for 30 or 40 hours a week and perhaps need only show up for 5 or 10, what shall we do with our free time? If the last 30 years are any indication, the great mass of humanity is unlikely to burst into creative enterprise and find ever more enlightening ways to express itself. Binge-watching Netflix series, playing Minecraft and interminably scrolling Instagram reels are the more likely activities, and one wonders what kind of society will evolve from this pseudo-Eden of no more work.
In past technology revolutions one can argue that the jobs eliminated were more than compensated for by the creation of new jobs that supported or were corollary to the new technology. But AI may be different, in that it is not merely a device or a piece of software, but rather combines both a task and the human intelligence necessary to create, maintain and modify itself.
To the extent that AI can assist human beings in performing tasks or creating things and NOT replace them entirely, then one can hope that the benefits will outweigh the dangers. But I don’t think it is hyperbole to contemplate the more extreme outcome of partially or even totally sidelining much of human endeavor.
It may be that humans need to have meaningful work, and not just activity, and that by reducing or eliminating that need we are attempting to short-circuit evolution. It is common for retired people to fight depression when they face endless days of free time. The societal instability that arose out of the Great Depression or other periods of large scale unemployment may have been partly or even mainly due to desperate need and poverty, but as the old saying goes - idle hands are the devil's playground.
The use of AI in the military sphere is nightmarish to imagine. And there is absolutely no doubt that it will swiftly inhabit every aspect of that world. Terminator type scenarios are probably a decade or two off, but AI use in drones, combat vehicles, weaponry and decision-making is already upon us and will no doubt increase exponentially in the next few years. The overwhelming amount of information, sensor data and tactical options in warfare have increasingly become almost impossible for humans to process. AI may already be taking over command.
In the world of social media and the arts, AI is being hyped and sold as a boon for creators, but will it soon re-define what creativity is and make it a cheap commodity? If I can ask chatGPT to write a poem for me, tweak it a bit, and then parade it as my own creation, will AI soon lead to the Walmartization of culture? And why learn how to write if my AI app can do it for me? Are we gleefully welcoming our own obsolescence?
And we all know what bots, deep fakes and other early forms of AI have done to civil discourse and politics, not to mention the incredible harm that tiktok, Instagram, YouTube, discord, facebook and other social media have done to the vulnerable teenage psyche. Are more advanced forms of AI likely to wreak even more havoc?
Another concern is what impact AI will have on education. We have already seen that newer generations have lost the ability of map orientation, cursive writing and mental math. Why learn algebra or calculus if AI can do it faster? No need to master grammar, AI will make sure anything you write is correct. When every fact and concept can be accessed immediately through vocal interactions with Siri or her brethren, why study history or political science or literature?
I have been using chatGPT’s mia for practicing my French and German. I say something and mia responds appropriately, posing questions to push the conversation along and correcting me if I ask her to do so. It is not yet quite the same as speaking to a language teacher, but it is close. And it takes away all the nervousness and shyness that one normally needs to overcome to conduct a conversation. How seductive is that? But is it a slippery slope to isolation and social disintegration? Will we all choose to inhabit a world of AI-produced acquaintances, friends and lovers. None of the messiness of real human relationships – what could be better?
Yes, AI is upon us and there may be some wondrous things that make our lives better. But beware, all that glitters is not gold. The tech billionaires who argue for unfettered development of AI see the world through a lens focused on corporate profits and unimaginably high valuations of AI startups. Their short-sighted arrogance needs to be tempered by more sober analysis before Pandora’s box is entirely open.
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