The Pew Charitable Trust post-election survey for 2020 yields some very interesting results. The survey is done with validated voters and is probably the closest thing to an accurate portrayal of the election that one can find. The link is here: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/
The first and probably most dramatic, if not surprising, finding is the difference between white and non-white voters. White voters favored Trump 55 – 43 (2% voted for a 3rd party candidate), while black, Hispanic and Asian voters favored Biden by 92-8, 59-38 and 72-28 respectively. One expects the black vote to be so one-sided, but I was surprised (and gratified) at how strong the Asian vote for Biden was.
The second noticeable characteristic of the vote is the gender gap. Men voted for Trump 50-48 versus the female vote of 55-44 for Biden.
A third set of noticeable gaps is between generations. Millennials and GenZ’ers favored Biden by 20 points, 58-38, while Gen X’ers still favored Biden, but only by 51-48. Baby Boomers and Silent Generation went for Trump 51-48 and 58-42 respectively. The strong preference for democratic candidates by youthful voters could be problematic for Republicans in the future, but it is also possible that the gap could be at least partly be caused by the typical evolution of political affiliation from more liberal to more conservative with age.
The urban/suburban/rural demographic is no surprise, but still impressive. Urban voters went for Biden 66-33, suburban for Biden 54-43, and rural for Trump 65-33. This clearly depicts a major schism in American society. What that schism represents in terms of cultural, economic and political ideology has been explored in depth but is still a bit elusive.
Somewhat related to this geographic split is the religion angle. White evangelicals, who account for 19% of all voters, made up 34% of Trump’s support, voting 84-15 for Trump. But what amazes me is that white non-evangelical protestants and Catholics favored Trump by a significant margin, 57-43. This is a stunning statistic, as I cannot imagine a less Christ-like candidate than Donald Trump. This speaks volumes about Christianity in America. Unaffiliated voters preferred Biden by a whopping 71-26.
The final, and for me, most interesting demographic is the level of education. Voters with postgraduate education favored Biden by a large margin, 67-32. College grads favored Biden 56-42, still a very significant margin. Voters with some college education were almost a toss-up, preferring Trump 50-49, and high school grads (or less) voted strongly for Trump 56-41. These numbers indicate a profoundly different political stance at higher levels of education. The right will characterize this as liberal elitism and hypocrisy, while the left will portray it as a sign of enlightenment that comes with more education. In any event, this disparity is troubling, and does not bode well for political stability.
The US voting population is clearly divided into very distinct and hostile camps. Whether this partisanship will fade over the coming years or become even more divisive and dangerous remains to be seen. America has always had sharp and noisy differences between its political parties and different demographic groups. Will the current stress find relief as (and if) the pandemic retreats and the economy stabilizes?
There are numerous pitfalls ahead as we face uncertain effects of climate change, income inequality and cultural issues, not to mention foreign affairs challenges with Russia and China. Will these contribute to the political rancor or will they tend to unite us and cause us to be more accommodating toward one another? Only time will tell.
No comments:
Post a Comment