There is a lot of tough talk about Russia these days. With Russian troops massed at the border of Ukraine, it is easy to view Russia in ‘evil empire’ terms. Opinion pieces lament our ‘weak’ responses to Putin’s aggressive moves over the last couple of decades, from the tepid response to the Crimean invasion to our passivity in the face of its aggressive role in Belarusian politics.
Russia has a lot of problems to be sure. It is a basically a plutocracy with very limited democratic institutions. Putin is a dictator. There is not a free press or a healthy opposition in the political realm. It is expanding its military energetically, and using its oil and gas resources to exert influence over all of its European neighbors. Most recently it has sent troops into Kazakhstan to ruthlessly quell riots.
But setting aside the somewhat western-centric view of what we wish Russia had become after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, there is something to be gained by looking at the current situation from their perspective. Learning from history is something we have failed to do in the past and it has severely damaged our economy and reputation. Perhaps it would be wise for us to take a step back and understand the history of Russian discontent?
Russia, like every other world power during the 18th and 19th centuries, sought to expand its empire. At various times in the last 300 years, Russia controlled vast territories from Eastern Europe to Central and South Asia, including parts of the Middle East. The British Empire saw the Russian Empire as one of its biggest threats, referring to their efforts to contain Russia as ‘The Great Game’, and this conflict resulted in the Crimean War of 1853-56.
The Soviet Union was simply a new version of this empire, though cloaked in the noble guise of international communism and world revolution. In essence, the Soviet period is now viewed in Russia as a troubled but logical continuation of Russian influence and control.
But lurking beneath this Russian imperial might and confidence is a deep mistrust and insecurity about its boundaries and vulnerability. Invasions by France in the Napoleonic era, by western forces during the Russian civil war 1917-1923, and by Germany during the 3rd Reich created a paranoia in Russian leadership that is still very evident today. Stalin was so fearful of possible western incursions after WW2 that he created the infamous Iron Curtain of Eastern European countries as a buffer.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia went through a decade of humiliation. It lost most of its imperial territory and influence, and went through painful spasms of political and economic turmoil. Rather than work to build a strong new relationship and support a new Russia, the west seemed eager to revel in its cold war triumph and quickly moved to isolate Russia by luring Soviet bloc countries to NATO.
Putin, with a mixture of canny political skills, megalomania and tyranny, has succeeded in restoring a great measure of pride and accomplishment to Russia. He eschews western liberalism and defiantly embraces a conservative brand of authoritarianism and hardball geopolitics. He ruthlessly suppresses opposition and rewrites history to serve his purposes.
But is it surprising that the exodus of Eastern European countries from the former Soviet bloc into the European Union and NATO’s embrace has resulted in aggressive moves from Russia? What would we do in its place? Both the Ukraine and Georgia were part of Russia throughout the last two centuries. Large parts of Poland and the Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) were also part of the Russian Empire. Would we not feel similarly threatened under the same circumstances?
Russia may be a bully, and its geopolitical aspirations may have a potential for causing new conflict, but it is foolish for us to pretend that its concerns have no basis or that they are entirely unacceptable. It is tricky at this point to make concessions on any of Russia’s demands without appearing weak or naïve, but it is also foolish to play hardball with so much at stake and the prospect of a possible military escalation.
Now is not the time to play cowboy politics with blinders that see only black and white. Would it be a dangerous compromise to recast NATO and even some aspects of the European Union in a way that promotes collaboration with Russia? True diplomacy is painfully slow and frustrating, but it is the only way to resolve complex problems.
No comments:
Post a Comment