Common Sense and COVID-19

Politics and science make for poor bedfellows, but unfortunately, they have been sleeping together ever since the start of the pandemic. The data and reporting associated with this disease has been confusing, but there are some basic facts that, in my opinion, make two things very clear: 

1. That COVID-19 is a serious threat to a significant portion of the population, and we should do everything in our power to minimize its impact until a vaccine provides enough immunity to allow us to move toward a more ‘normal’ life.
2. The USA made catastrophic errors in its management of the pandemic, at least partially based on an election year desire to protect the economy, which have cost us many lives and ironically made the economic downturn worse. 

Here are the basic facts that led me to those conclusions:

• The devastating pandemic health crises that occurred in Wuhan, Italy, Spain, France and the New York/New Jersey/Massachusetts area at the outset of the pandemic are clear indications of what havoc and death the contagion can wreak if no measures are taken and the virus is allowed to get out of control.
• The IFR (infection fatality rate) of COVID-19 is still under investigation. It is most likely several times higher than influenza (0.6 compared to 0.1). To achieve herd immunity by infection would kill well over a million people if we were to resume business as usual.
• It is the combination of IFR and reproduction number R0 that makes COVID-19 particularly dangerous. Unlike influenza, which is held partially in check by an annual vaccine, the reproduction number for COVID-19 is highly unstable unless strong measures are taken. COVID-19 reproduction numbers were estimated at well over 2 during the early phases of the outbreak.  A reproduction number of 2 means that one infected person will cause over 65,000 sicknesses after 16 cycles of infection (approx. 90 days). When the contagion rages unchecked, the IFR will be higher because of healthcare overload. 
• Even with social distancing, partial shutdown and partial adherence to wearing face masks, the USA has lost an average of 1,000 lives per day since late May.
• The hospitalizations and long-term effects of COVID-19 appear to be much more severe than influenza. 
• A number of countries have been able to contain the contagion with a combination of high test rates, tracking, tracing and quarantining. These countries have also been able to open up their economies to a great extent. There are many countries who have had daily death rates in the single digits (or no deaths) for several months after taking these actions (Germany, Korea, Italy, China, Japan, Vietnam, New Zealand and many others).
• The USA never had a national plan to combat the pandemic. Trump played down the danger, was convinced the virus would ‘disappear’ once warm weather arrived and encouraged US citizens to flout lockdown and safety measures. Our daily infection counts never got down low enough for us to contain the virus in most states. We have lost over 100,000 lives since June 1st, the time when we should have had the virus under control. Germany has lost 800 in that same period.

The biggest irony is that an aggressive national plan to contain the virus would have allowed us to get back to a much higher level of economic and social interaction by June. Instead, we are mired in a partial shutdown that is still killing large numbers of people. I believe that most of the world’s reputable scientists and epidemiologists would agree with the facts and conclusions that I mention above. Bill Gates, who has spent the last 20 years of his life working on healthcare issues, has come out recently with scathing criticism of our management of the pandemic. 

Only a desperate desire to excuse Trump from condemnation can interpret the facts above as anything but a catastrophic failure. A recent Pew Charitable Trust poll of developed nations found that the reputation of the USA has plummeted in the wake of the pandemic. The reputation of Trump has also decreased, but it was already so low that the difference is not that dramatic. In Germany, where there is a strong memory of a demagogue, only 10% (the skinheads, neo-Nazis and other radical right groups) approve of Trump. 

 Enough said.