A Tale of COVID In Four Graphs

Our country's catastrophic failure in containing the pandemic has led to over 100,000 needless deaths.  Four graphs demonstrate the difference between our response and that of Germany, a very similar country with ¼ of the population of the USA.  The wealthiest and most powerful nation on earth is now ridiculed across the world for good reasons.

The primary culprit in our failure is Donald Trump.  His most sacred duty is to provide national leadership in a crisis.  There is absolutely no question that he failed to do that.  Pandemic leadership is twofold: 

1. Delivering a strong message about the gravity of the crisis and vigorously promoting precautionary measures such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and lockdown measures until the virus is at a level where it can be contained.
2. Mobilizing the necessary national resources (FEMA, CDC, military, national guard, newly hired unemployed, etc.) to provide a level of testing, tracking, tracing and quarantining that will keep the virus in check and minimize deaths.  Working in harmony with governors to employ these resources wherever necessary.

Trump acted in the exact opposite way.  He encouraged protests and ridiculed safety measures.  He said multiple times that the virus would ‘disappear’.  He denied any responsibility for the pandemic’s consequences.  He was more concerned about his election than the lives of US citizens.

Here are four graphs that show the magnitude of our failure.  The first two show the daily deaths from the start of the pandemic to today for the USA and Germany.  Note that the average death rate in the USA has stayed nearly 1000 for the entire summer.  Germany’s daily death rate has averaged in the single digits for that period, a ratio of 100 to 1! 

The second two graphs show the positivity rate of testing during the same period.  It is a well established epidemiological fact that testing needs to be done at a high enough rate so that the positivity numbers are less than 2, or better yet, less than one, to identify any outbreaks quickly and be able to employ tracking, tracing and quarantining to quell them.  The positivity rate in the USA has never gone below 4 and is much higher in many states, while the positivity rate in Germany has stayed at or below 1 since the beginning of June.

In the final analysis, the number of deaths since June 1^st, the date by which both countries had enough time to prepare their responses and get the virus under control, tells the whole story.  Germany with one fourth the population, has had 927 deaths in that time.  The USA has had 100,196 deaths, more than 100 times the number that occurred in Germany.

 Germany had a leader who believed in and valued science, who collaborated well with her 16 independent states and provided sound, moral leadership and advice to the people.  Germany has had bars, restaurants, schools and businesses mostly open since mid-May.  They, like every nation, have had protests against lockdowns and disagreements about specific measures.  But the political and medical leadership has generally convinced the German public to follow the rules and they have reaped the rewards.

Germany has contained COVID-19 while keeping their economy in relatively good shape.  The USA has done neither.  Trump must be held accountable.