The Sadly Predictable Decline

In 1945 the United States was the sole nation to emerge from the devastation of World War Two with its economy and population intact.  Indeed, the USA was master of the world – a booming industrial economy, a dominating military capability and a population eager to take advantage of both.

As the world slowly recovered, it became a captive market for the USA.  America produced everything and no other economy even came close.  No longer allowed to engage in direct colonization, we mastered economic imperialism, manipulating developing nations to use their resources and manpower to benefit our economic domination, all the while rationalizing our role in the spirit of free market capitalism and a rising tide that lifts all boats.

 

We grew comfortable in our exalted position.  Even though we failed to lift up our own bottom 15-20% out of poverty and despair, the 50’s and 60’s were times of heady economic optimism for most of the country.

 

By the time the 70’s and 80’ came along, Europe had begun to compete effectively with us in many markets, and the Japanese industrial juggernaut caught us by surprise.  An economic malaise took hold in the late 70’s due to multiple factors, so we tightened our belts, reduced taxes for the wealthy and began to look for ways to maintain the high earnings that wall street had come to expect.

 

Globalization took hold in the 80’s, as other nations began to cultivate industrial capabilities and provide less expensive labor.  A legion of freshly minted MBAs spread out across industrial America with the gospel of offshore factories and production, and corporate profits began to soar again as American manufacturing fled overseas.

 

American dominance in the technology revolution masked the insidious changes afoot throughout the 90’s. So-called knowledge jobs became the mantra and we convinced ourselves that the disappearing industrial base would be easily transformed into an even more lucrative knowledge economy. 

 

Economics is perhaps not truly a zero-sum game, but as other nations developed and began to claim their share of the world’s riches, it was not hard to predict that average wages and employment opportunities would be affected in previously dominant economies as the global economy became ever more inter-connected.  Even knowledge jobs can be outsourced with the Internet and gigabit networks.

 

Slowing population growth in established economies resulted in increased immigration to augment the labor market.  In good times and at a measured pace, immigration can be tolerated and even embraced by a native population.  But as economies began to stagnate and the middle class to languish, the immigration waves of the 2000’s and 2010’s created a tsunami of resentment that foretold a rise in populism.

 

Sharing the world’s resources was never going to be easy.  When you have a part of the world that was accustomed to being in the catbird seat and is now struggling to find its equilibrium in a changing world, there was bound to be a very difficult transition.

 

But now, with increasingly rampant populism and the rise to power of authoritarian figures like Trump, Putin, Xi, Modi, Orban and Netanyahu, the prospects for global cooperation on the thorny issues facing this world seem increasingly dim.  Unilateralism, clownishly personified in Trump, appears to be the watchword for the superpowers.  

 

There was a period in the 90’s when we all felt optimistic about the future.  Democracy seemed to be flourishing, economies were growing, global conflict was minimal, hundreds of millions across the globe were rising into the middle class.  But the seeds of discontent were already there.  Did we squander the momentum we had at that time?  Could we have changed the arc of history to a more harmonious path by making some adjustments?  Who knows?  Human nature does not easily tolerate decreased expectations, and sharing is not easy.  

 

I see hard times ahead, but I have faith in our basic humanity.  Unfortunately, we may have to endure some very difficult moments before that really kicks in.

The Technology Delusions

You can’t stop progress, or so the saying goes.  The rate of change in our world is astonishing, and seems to be ever accelerating.  If one looks at the almost three hundred years since the start of the first industrial revolution (generally dated at about 1760) it is clear that things have changed at a dizzying pace.

Almost every facet of human civilization has changed dramatically during this time period – government, education, public health, medicine, transportation, war, agriculture, manufacturing.  Scientific discoveries, engineering and technological advances were at the heart of much of that change.  

 

Can we also say that the quality of human existence has improved in step with this progression?  How does one measure the quality of people’s lives?  In developed nations life expectancy increased dramatically since the start of this period, from an average in the mid 30’s in the early 1800’s to the high 70’s or even low 80’s today.  The average number of hours in a work week has also declined significantly.  It is difficult to generalize, but it appears that the type of work and the dangers involved have also improved over time for much of the population, although the drudgery of today’s manufacturing and service jobs might not be substantially better than the work of the past.

 

In terms of material wealth and comfort, there has been a similarly dramatic increase over the timeframe of technological advancement for much of the world.  Housing, appliances, vehicles, clothing, recreation, sports and many other aspects of daily life have become easier, and offer more variety for leisure time and less onerous daily living conditions.

 

However, these improvements and achievements are not enjoyed universally.  The lower economic strata of society, and indeed most of the developing world, still struggle in a life that is often far from comfortable or happy.

 

The economics of capitalism, which have driven the technological revolution from its beginnings, claim that the most efficient way for all to benefit is for unregulated self-interest and the profit motive to drive all economic activity.  The reigning metaphor is that of a rising tide lifting all boats.

 

But have we now reached a point of diminishing returns on our technology investment and the unfettered free market?  The last 40 years have seen little success in solving many of the economic and social issues that continue to plague us, and despite the rise to middle class of many in parts of Asia, the developing world still lags  far behind and seems permanently stymied in its attempt to ascend.

 

The ongoing computer information age and the burgeoning AI and space races do not appear likely to contribute to a more salutary or stable world situation.  If anything, they have exacerbated conflicts and increased inequality both within and between nations.

 

The massive accumulation of wealth by a relatively small cadre of the super-rich may provide ample funding for new technology, but will these technological advances really make a positive difference in the world?  Or will they simply perpetuate the status quo or lead to more discord?

 

The first delusion of technology is that every new gadget or invention is worth pursuing; that every new idea must be exploited to its full potential; that if something is possible, then it must be realized, regardless of the cost or the missed opportunities.  The second delusion is that technological advancement must continue to accelerate, that it must be funded and hurried along as quickly as possible.  This, of course, is a consequence of the fierce competition between companies and nations. 

 

And the third delusion is that technology will always bring good things.  The truth is that new technology brings change, both good and bad.  The computer revolution, the Internet, the smartphone and social media have brought wonderful new connections and capabilities, but they have a dark side that becomes are more striking.  Have our lives truly been made more fulfilling by this technology?  Are we any happier or more well-adjusted?

 

And what does the future hold for us?  The mad rush to employ AI everywhere and the spectacular self-driving vehicles and new space craft may delight us with their ingenuity, but will any of it lead to a better world for the 8 billion people that are trying to come to terms with climate change, continuing inequality, disease, political conflict, despotism and war (not to mention an earth that is rapidly filling up with our detritus and becoming an ecological disaster).

 

Technical progress is a genie that will never go back into the bottle.  But we do have the power to make different wish requests of this genie.  If we do not choose wisely, we may find ourselves starting again from square one.

I am Firing My AI Agent!

Is there anyone not sick and tired of hearing about AI?  If we are on the edge of humanity’s destruction. please just get it over with and stop talking about it.

I imagine there are wonderful things that AI will do in this world, or at least that is what every self-pronounced expert is telling us.  And I also can believe that there are great dangers lurking in the shadows as AI evolves.  It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to envision all sorts of different outcomes of the global race to dominate in AI.  And given the current adversarial nature of politics and the world community, the direction that competition will take could be catastrophic.

 

Still, who knows, maybe AI will come up with a great plan for dealing with climate change, or map out a cure for cancer, or solve the thorny issue of how to build a fusion power plant.  Maybe AI agents will act as mediators and negotiators between warring countries or design a worldwide trade policy that benefits everyone equally, or solve the developing nation debt problem.  I kind of doubt it, but we can always hope!

 

But listen, Mr. AI Agent, keep your nose out of my business!  I don’t want a personal AI agent telling me everything I should be doing, planning my day, measuring my progress, feeding me information, advising me on what to wear or when to exercise. I don't want an AI agent chastising me for sleeping poorly or not moving often enough or not stopping to rest while driving. I don’t want an AI agent writing my blogs, giving me song ideas, completing my sentences, or jogging my memory.  I don’t want an AI agent suggesting future purchases I should consider, or advising me on career choices.  (OK, I’m retired so that isn’t really relevant).

 

I spent my whole career in technology, and I fully appreciate the amazing advances that computers and information technology have made.  But I detest technology’s intrusion into my life and the assumption that I must purchase every new gadget and keep up with every new trend in social media. And I can’t even imagine what the raging juggernaut of AI will force upon us in the coming years.  

 

At the risk of seeming curmudgeonly or even worse, old, I proclaim that I will fiercely resist any AI agent that comes my way, no matter what promises it makes of improving my life.  I will fire the damn thing and, if necessary, throw my phone and iPad into the lake.  This, I do solemnly swear! 

The Somewhat Sisyphean Nature of Human Existence

Recently I had a significant period of time where I stopped playing guitar – a couple of week’s vacation and then a few weeks focused on a very joyful event: the birth of our grandson, Oliver.  When I started to play again this week the callouses on my fingers were pretty much gone and I had to start the mildly painful process of getting them back again.

The Greek myth of Sisyphus depicts a man forced by the Gods to endlessly roll an immense boulder up a hill only for it to roll back down again.  The myth is seen by some as a symbol of the absurdity of existence or the futility of human striving.  But I see a lot of my life in the myth of Sisyphus and I don’t regard it as necessarily absurd or futile, though it is sometimes frustrating.

 

The truth is that I find myself repeating a lot of the efforts of my life.  I go to the gym for a period of time and then take a break or get injured.  When I return, I have to go through the process of building up my stamina and strength again.  The same goes for running (back when I used to run) or cycling.  My many years of soccer waxed and waned and I found my skill level had to be re-acquired through practice and play each time I took a significant break.

 

I am currently studying French and Spanish, and I am slowly building competence in listening, reading and speaking.  But any time away from these studies causes the boulder to roll back a bit and I must re-commit myself to the task and build up my comprehension again.

 

The same goes for many other areas of study or knowledge.  I find my grasp of history fades and I will periodically refresh it through reading books and doing Internet research.  I have learned and re-learned mathematics and physics many, many times as the need has arisen (going back for a masters then a PhD; teaching IB math; tutoring in math and physics).  

 

Or consider the routine tasks of life – cleaning the house, maintaining the landscaping, even conducting one’s daily hygiene.  These are all Sisyphean tasks.  The house is clean, then slowly gets dirty.  The lawn is cut, the grass grows back.  The beard is shaven, it returns.

 

The second law of thermodynamics states that the entropy of an isolated system left to spontaneous evolution cannot decrease with time.  Entropy is a measure of disorder.  It takes energy to make order out of disorder, knowledge out of ignorance and skill out of incompetence.  

 

We supply that energy to all the different facets of our lives and we proudly observe the order that results, but inevitably the boulder rolls back a bit, or even all the way and we must exert ourselves anew.  There may be a few places where we are able to hold the boulder at bay, or a few more challenging hills where our efforts continue to push the boulder ever higher, but at some point even these will lapse and we will have to pick ourselves up and make the effort to regain the ground we have lost.

 

There is an element of futility, and even absurdity, in all of this, and one is occasionally struck by the thought that life consists of simply going through the same motions again and again.  

But I try to fight this inclination to demean our efforts.  There is nobility in work and activity, even if it is partly Sisyphean.  We commune with the rest of the world and with nature in our quest to make order from disorder.  There is no shame in repetition or even drudgery if it is done in good faith and with purpose.  Perhaps there is no higher calling.  And, of course, there are always new boulders to push to keep things interesting!   

Not Even Close To a Mandate!

The shock of Trump’s election victory, which significantly exceeded what the polls and most pundits expected, has reverberated wildly through the political world.  The right has claimed a massive mandate for its agenda, and the democrats have engaged in an orgy of self-criticism and blame casting. 

 But let’s take a moment to review the election results.  The popular vote is now pretty much completely tabulated.  Trump has 77.3 million and Harris has 75.0 million.  Trump received 3 percent more than Harris.  That is far less than Biden’s 9.6% margin in 2020 and even less than Clinton’s 4.6 % margin in 2016.  It pales in comparison with Obama’s 15.8% margin over McCain in 2008.  Let's look at it another way: Trump had 2.3 million more votes than Harris, meaning that if 1.16M of those voters had gone with Harris she would have won the popular vote.  And 1.16M voters is not even one percent of the total vote!! Given the major obstacles of inflation and immigration that the democrats faced, it is absurd to describe that margin as any sort of mandate.

 

We are so used to being evenly divided as a country that we interpret even small electoral victories as dramatic events.  One can only surmise that the incessant polling indicating a dead heat between Trump and Harris somehow set us up for this post-election hysteria over the results. 

 

The fact that what are essentially incremental changes in voting ushered in republican congressional and senate majorities is more an artefact of our strange electoral process than any huge outpouring of Trump-mania.  But sadly, it allows the MAGA world to act as if it does indeed have some momentous mandate from the people.  This will no doubt lead to a reckless overreach on the part of Trump and his minions.  How well it will succeed is anyone’s guess, but if it is even close to the vengeful crusade Trump has been threatening throughout his campaign there may be hell to pay in the 2026 midterms for the MAGA world.  One can only hope!

 

As for the hand-wringing and finger-pointing on the left, I fear that the massive overreaction may end up being more detrimental than helpful.  Occam’s razor applies here:  inflation and immigration.  It was a mistake to focus too much on Trump’s obvious character flaws and ethical vacuum.  The public is totally saturated and inured to these faults.  They have become familiar and lost their shock value.  And yes, Harris could have distanced herself more from Biden given his low approval ratings and the key issues of the campaign.  But in the end, it is all pretty simple – the people vote their pocketbook and their refrigerator, and both appear to be hurting for reasons that most people don't truly understand.

 

There is quite simply no mandate whatsoever for the MAGA movement.  They have enough power to act as if there is one, but they will overplay their hand and the pendulum will once again reach its peak and begin to slowly move back toward the center.  Here’s hoping that the damage done in the meantime won’t be too catastrophic. There is much to be done to limit it, and that should be the focus now.

Long Live the American Populist Plutocrat Christian Party

The Republican Party is dead!  Long live the American Populist, Plutocrat Christian Party! All hail Trump and Musk!

The results are in and Donald Trump has won a decisive victory over Kamala Harris.  I wonder if he thinks this election was stolen?  He didn’t have a lot of faith in the process.  But as usual, the polls were pretty far off and here we are with another four years of Trump.

 

I regard this as the death knell of the Republican Party.  The Trump platform (to the extent there is one) has little in common with the republican values of the last 80 years.  The most notable figures in republican administrations from Reagan to Bush lined up against Trump to no avail.  The pendulum has swung violently away from the traditional two-party American system.

 

So, what does Trump represent?  What is this party that he now has so completely dominated that its political class is terrified of offending him?  How is it that a majority of Americans lined up behind a man who lies with each breath, who brags without ceasing, and who is so thin-skinned that he viciously attacks and demeans anyone who offends him?

 

Like so many things in politics, it is both simple and complex.  It is simple because a large number of people in the USA are feeling unsettled and suspicious of the government and the so-called ruling elites. 

 

It is simple because globalization and neo-liberalism have been a huge disappointment and have never delivered on their promises of increasing prosperity for all and peace through economic cooperation.

 

It is simple because the rapid pace of cultural change – non-traditional families, new norms of sexuality, homosexuality and gay marriage, transgender issues, abortion, gender equality, continuing racial struggles – has frightened a large part of the USA, especially those who subscribe to traditional religious doctrine, and created a massive backlash.

 

It is simple because a significant part of the population will never vote for a democratic candidate and is betting that a Trump presidency, for all of its chaos and drama, will make them richer than they are today.

 

It is simple because most Americans feel superior to the rest of the world and hate being entangled in organizations, treaties, or other encumbrances with countries they neither respect nor trust.

 

It is simple because a world broken by so many ills (war, climate change, economic failure) is causing more and more desperate people to cross our borders to chase the American Dream and it scares the hell out of people for so many reasons despite the fact that every one of them has ancestors that did the same thing.

 

It is simple because 100 years of Hollywood has brainwashed us into believing that only an apparently tough, no-holds-barred, extremely cocky kind of guy can protect American interests.

It is simple because we have allowed individuals to acquire so much wealth that a single person with a huge ego can significantly alter an election.

It is simple because many Americans are still unable to get their minds around a woman leading the country.

 

It is simple because the pandemic brought a couple years of high inflation, and, ultimately, Americans vote their pocketbook.

 

And finally, it is complex because none of those simple things are really simple at all, and the American public is not educated enough to understand the challenges the USA and the rest of the world currently face and that humanity always evolves in a way that requires new thinking, and their first instinct is to make a bunker of the USA and try to keep the rest of the world and its problems out.

 

So, now we have a coalition of disgruntled Americans backed by a growing bro cabal of tech plutocrats who believe they are the only possible future saviors.  How do you come up with a name for this party? Admittedly, my choice is a bit wordy and cumbersome.  But did I mention that the whole thing is a bit complex?

Free Speech and Mis- or Disinformation

Is the world destined to sink into a quagmire of mis/disinformation in the years ahead?  Will there be any way to balance free speech, social media, AI and data mining to inform the public and decision-makers on important issues in a way that clearly identifies scientific or public consensus and flags misinformation?

For clarity – misinformation is information that is false but sent without malintent, whereas disinformation is false information sent for nefarious purposes.  Both have contributed dramatically to the increasingly fractious partisanship and populism in the USA and other countries.

 

The question of whether something is information or mis/disinformation is a thorny one.  There is a spectrum of information ranging from absolute truths (for example, a mathematical proof) to generally accepted facts or events, to speculation and contrarian theories, and ultimately, to conspiracy theories or outright falsehoods that are clearly absurd and/or anti-factual.  Where should one draw the line and who should be empowered to do so?

 

In recent years we have seen the spectacular growth of social media and other means for propagating information and allowing Internet users to perform their own inquiries into topics of interest.  With this growth we have seen the emergence of a flood of misinformation, speculation, conspiracy theories, dissent, denialism and a host of other contrarian views or even deep fakes and disinformation.  

 

Social media is reluctant to play the role of judging and hence limiting, filtering or even banning this avalanche of information for reasons both of self-interest and the principle of free speech.  Moreover, the algorithms that social media uses to maximize views and thus increase ad revenue tend to bias the system in a way that multiplies the impact of mis/disinformation.

 

In recent years the mega companies that control and profit from social media have increasingly argued that the right to free speech prevents them from stopping the spread of any but the most egregious disinformation, and they reject the role of censor.

 

The principle of free speech argues that everyone should have the right to freely voice their opinion or beliefs in the public domain.  There are limits to free speech that have been described in court cases over the years – incitement to imminent unlawful action or speech that presents a ‘clear and present danger’.  But most information, even deep fakes and outright falsehoods, is difficult to characterize as ‘a clear and present danger’.

 

The example of the COVID pandemic is perfect for understanding the problem.  Both the scope of the pandemic (i.e. how many cases there were and how many deaths occurred) and the recommendations to avoid exposure and spread were available from credible domestic and international medical authorities.  For example, Johns Hopkins updated an excellent site in real time with the latest statistics, and the CDC issued its recommendations for healthy practices (masks, social-distancing, treatments, etc.). 

 

 But anyone on social media could make their own interpretations of statistics or forward any anecdotal cures or critiques of the medical community’s information.  Partisan politics amplified this effect and planted doubt in many minds about the veracity of ‘official’ or scientific information.  This created a very confusing mix of information and sadly, much of the USA is still misinformed today over what actually happened and what we should have learned.  This does not bode well for the next pandemic.

 

There have always been alternative views and theories to capture the imagination of those who mistrust the government, scientists or the traditional media.  There were conspiracy theories long before the Internet.  But the Internet and social media have essentially eliminated any curbs or sanity checks on information exchange.  There is no longer a Walter Cronkite or Huntley and Brinkley to deliver trustworthy information.  The Internet is the wild west and there is no likely way to tame it.

 

AI and deep fakes will no doubt exacerbate the situation.  Disinformation will seem ever more convincing.  The average person will have limited ability to discern the difference between valid reports and false or misleading ones.

 

There is no easy solution to this problem.  Any attempts by the government or other legal authorities to curtail or flag mis/disinformation will be condemned by many as censorship, especially in today’s highly partisan atmosphere.

 

The only real answer to this problem is education.  Parents, schools and other organizations must address this plague of mis/disinformation and give people the analytical skills to differentiate between truth and fake news.  Faith in critical institutions – scientists, government agencies, credible news agencies, medical organizations – must be restored so that the public will seek out and prioritize information from these sources.

 

There is little reason to be optimistic about the future in this regard.  Social media is a Pandora’s Box of ills and it is likely that technology advances will only serve to make things worse.  The Internet has linked the world as never before and provides incredibly wonderful tools for humans to connect, learn and create, but sadly, it has also allowed the worst of human nature to flourish.