The Runaway Train of AI

The runaway train of the AI frenzy is another great example of how human nature and the free market can conspire to push humankind much faster than it can possibly adapt, likely causing major disruption and damage.

Humans love to create, and they also love to acquire wealth, fame and power.  The capitalist system and free market have accomplished many great things, but the frenetic and hurried nature of innovation and competition has often had very nasty side effects that would have been less pronounced had there been a more controlled and thoughtful path.

 

There have been multiple technological frenzies in our history that have dealt heavy blows to society.  The first may have been the conversion to large scale agriculture as hunter gatherer societies went from small tribal units to vast populations under the despotic control of a combination of religious and military tyrants.  Yuval Harari, who wrote the highly entertaining and insightful book “Sapiens”, called the agricultural revolution the biggest fraud in history!  The relatively stable and fulfilling lives of the hunter gatherers became infinitely more precarious and unpleasant with the transition to large scale agriculture.   

 

In the long run, of course, agriculture would become a reliable and powerful aide to humanity, but it took tens of thousands of years.

 

The industrial revolution, heralding the advent of true capitalism and the free market, is a perfect example of how a technological frenzy can accelerate societal change much faster than it can be accommodated.  Once the steam engine genie was out of the bottle, there was no stopping.  Soul-sucking, smoke-spewing factories spread like wildfire and entire families worked 6 or 7 days a week, 12 to 16 hours a day, including children.  The working conditions were incredibly harsh and dangerous.  Many of the artisans and skilled craftspeople lost their livelihoods, and vast numbers of people left the land to become even more enslaved in dirty, oppressive cities.

 

Of course, agricultural work was no picnic, and in the long run (a hundred years later!) factory and manufacturing work would provide a more stable and less onerous labor situation than farm life.  But the transition was brutal and it can be argued that its chaotic and cruel path led, or at least strongly contributed, to some of the most horrific events of the 20^th century – world wars and revolutions, dictatorships and genocides.

 

Another technological revolution was nuclear power.  The rapid development and proliferation of nuclear weapons came frighteningly close to annihilating the entire earth several times, and is experiencing a bit of a renaissance today as the large number of nuclear capable nations vie for dwindling resources and find themselves in an ever more confrontational geopolitical system. But at least there we have governing bodies attempting to control and restrict their use.

 

The most recent example of technological frenzy is the one-two punch of the computer and the Internet. The first punch, let’s call it a jab, put computers on everyone’s desktop and automated much of our business and commercial lives.  There was some level of displacement and job loss, but not nearly the type of hard-core unpleasantness that occurred in the industrial revolution.  Ironically, however, there was also not the dramatic increase in productivity that pundits expected.  We are still waiting for that.

 

The second punch of the digital revolution, call it a roundhouse blow, hit us hard.  The Internet, social media and smart phones developed so quickly and became so dominated by megacompanies and super wealthy individuals that the initially miraculous availability of information and connection became a nightmare of digital manipulation. It sparked a breakdown of civility, a tsunami of disinformation and populism as well as a torrent of anxiety, depression and psychological damage.  Not to mention the loss of privacy and the absurd inundation of advertising.

 

Central economic planning and control in the style of mid-twentieth century Soviet Russia or China were tragic failures.  But abandoning all civic control of the development of major societal forces and technologies and allowing the free market and human greed to dictate our future is not turning out to be a great idea either.  

 

And now we have AI.  The frenzy around AI far exceeds any previous frenzy.  The race to develop more advanced versions and facilitate ever greater processing of digital data is driven by a combination of competition, greed and a desperate fear of not staying relevant.  The primary players are all public or private companies with nothing to rein them in and huge egos at their helm.  There are prominent voices crying out for caution and a more controlled and monitored process of development.  Many of these voices are experts in the field.  But they are generally being ignored, and the cult of the totally free market and no government interference has firmly entrenched itself in the Trump autocracy and billionaire class.

 

No one can stop AI, and no one should.  But the short and long term disruptions and risks of AI progressing at a dangerous and breakneck speed may well be more than our planet and species can accommodate.  Like the arms race of the 50’s and 60’s, even if our nation were under more intelligent leadership there would be tremendous pressure to ‘beat the Chinese’.  The only effective restraint would have to come from an international movement and agreement between the key competing governments.  In the current climate of suspicion and ill will, this is, sadly, unlikely to occur.