A Double Wag the Dog

The rationale for the Israeli and American war on Iran is a Chinese menu – Imminent nuclear threat, regime change and freedom for the Iranian people, long term security for Israel, punishment for Iran’s existential threat to Israel and regional stability, democracy for Iran, or, most likely,  cover for two corrupt and diabolical leaders – Netanyahu and Trump.

Few will mourn the demise of the Ayatollah or his henchmen.  They have impoverished and terrified the Iranian people over the last 40 years.  Their support of the extremist proxies Hezbollah and Hamas has contributed to the growth of right-wing authoritarianism in Israel.  Rather than aiding the Palestinian cause, this support has made any progress highly unlikely.

 

But the assassination of Iranian leaders and all-out war that Trump and Netanyahu have initiated is unjustified for many reasons.  The first is that Iran by all reasonable assessments is incapable of nuclear warfare any time in the near future.  This has been verified by the UN’s nuclear inspection agency and other neutral third parties.

 

The second is that Israel is far superior to Iran in military capabilities and the idea that Iran is an existential threat to Israel is simply laughable.  Even without US support, Israel has little or nothing to fear from Iran. Moreover, Netanyahu has been chafing to attack Iran for decades and argued that Iran would have a nuclear weapon imminently back in the early 90’s.  He was delighted to discover that he could stroke Trump's ego enough to lure him into fulfilling his dream.

 

The third is that the recent history of overthrow of Mideast regimes through warfare has been dismal.  Both Afghanistan and Iraq were foreign policy and humanitarian catastrophes, whose ill effects are still reverberating throughout that region.  Have we learned nothing?

 

The fourth reason is that unilateral military action against sovereign states and leaders is an abandonment of international rules-based diplomacy, a way for Russia to further rationalize its invasion of Ukraine, and an invitation to future unilateral actions such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

 

The fifth reason is that war’s result is unlikely to be a democratic, secular regime in Iran.  The current Islamic state is so deeply embedded that it is difficult to imagine it changing dramatically.  The more likely scenario is a long period of chaotic, tragic internecine battles between various factions.  Furthermore, the idea that Trump and Netanyahu have the slightest sympathy for the Iranian people is totally absurd.

 

And the final reason is that there were clearly vile and cynical personal motivations for both Trump and Netanyahu to launch this war that have nothing to do with noble desires to free the Iranian people.  Trump is facing a disastrous midterm election that could completely derail his presidency.  Netanyahu has so far managed to avoid the consequences of his administration’s security failures and prior support of Hamas by his brutal destruction of Gaza and murder of close to a hundred thousand Palestinians, but a time of reckoning was approaching.  His corruption and legal problems were also threatening.

 

Yes, the Iran war is a classic wag the dog scenario.  Both Trump and Netanyahu are authoritarian leaders who are totally unscrupulous and diabolical.  Their capricious use of military force with unclear objectives is intended to distract a public that has been easily wooed by violence and warfare in the past.  One can only hope that this time the ruse won’t work and that they will pay for their arrogance.  But the sad truth is that this war will cost the lives of thousands and perhaps tens or hundreds of thousands if history is any guide.