Not Even Close To a Mandate!

The shock of Trump’s election victory, which significantly exceeded what the polls and most pundits expected, has reverberated wildly through the political world.  The right has claimed a massive mandate for its agenda, and the democrats have engaged in an orgy of self-criticism and blame casting. 

 But let’s take a moment to review the election results.  The popular vote is now pretty much completely tabulated.  Trump has 77.3 million and Harris has 75.0 million.  Trump received 3 percent more than Harris.  That is far less than Biden’s 9.6% margin in 2020 and even less than Clinton’s 4.6 % margin in 2016.  It pales in comparison with Obama’s 15.8% margin over McCain in 2008.  Given the major obstacles of inflation and immigration that the democrats faced, it is absurd to describe that vote as any sort of mandate.

 

We are so used to being evenly divided as a country that we interpret even small electoral victories as dramatic events.  One can only surmise that the incessant polling indicating a dead heat between Trump and Harris somehow set us up for this post-election hysteria over the results. 

 

The fact that what are essentially incremental changes in voting ushered in republican congressional and senate majorities is more an artefact of our strange electoral process than any huge outpouring of Trump-mania.  But sadly, it allows the MAGA world to act as if it does indeed have some momentous mandate from the people.  This will no doubt lead to a reckless overreach on the part of Trump and his minions.  How well it will succeed is anyone’s guess, but if it is even close to the vengeful crusade Trump has been threatening throughout his campaign there may be hell to pay in the 2026 midterms for the MAGA world.  One can only hope!

 

As for the hand-wringing and finger-pointing on the left, I fear that the massive overreaction may end up being more detrimental than helpful.  Occam’s razor applies here:  inflation and immigration.  It was a mistake to focus too much on Trump’s obvious character flaws and ethical vacuum.  The public is totally saturated and inured to these faults.  They have become familiar and lost their shock value.  And yes, Harris could have distanced herself more from Biden given his low approval ratings and the key issues of the campaign.  But in the end, it is all pretty simple – the people vote their pocketbook and their refrigerator, and both appear to be hurting for reasons that most people don't truly understand.

 

There is quite simply no mandate whatsoever for the MAGA movement.  They have enough power to act as if there is one, but they will overplay their hand and the pendulum will once again reach its peak and begin to slowly move back toward the center.  Here’s hoping that the damage done in the meantime won’t be too catastrophic. There is much to be done to limit it, and that should be the focus now.