On the Absurdity of Relying on Polls and Other Election Nonsense

Despite all the recent election evidence that polls are more or less worthless we seem to make them the basis of our political machinations.  Let’s explore why they have so little value.  And while we’re at it, let’s look at whether TV or Internet ads are a good use of money.

Number one, a poll with a relatively small number of respondents compared to the total population is statistically weak, and most polls fall into this category.  It only can be accurate if you believe that the respondents are strongly representative of the total population.  This brings us to the second point, that the people who respond to polls are most likely not even close to being a representative group of the general electorate.

 

Think about it!  Who answers their phone at all unless it’s a number they recognize?  In this time of spam, botmails, robocalls, and endless attempts to gain our attention, not to mention malicious attacks, scams, viruses and phishing, there is a totally understandable reluctance to engage with unknown entities.

 

And who has the time to respond to a survey?  What with Facebook, Insta, TikTok, YouTube and a thousand other claims to our precious time weighing heavily on us, who is going to be willing to submit to the drudgery of taking a survey?  This is clearly a self-selecting group, not a random collection of voters.  I’m not exactly sure what defines this group, but it must be a rather strange and motley crew.

 

Given the amount of money spent on polls and the consultants who make up the political money machine, I am sure there is a wealth of quasi-scientific efforts to justify poll-taking.  But I don’t buy it.  They are rubbish.

 

And of course, the polls then feed into the whole machinery of opinion influencing – the attack ads, the mailbox fillers, the TV portrayals, the mind-numbing drivel on social media, the even more outrageous YouTube slander and outright falsehoods.

 

Let’s face it, our election process is a colossal waste of time, money and good will.  Probably 99% of people make up their minds based on opinions and biases that are unaffected by the billions and billions of dollars spent.  We would be better served as a nation to dismantle the whole political process and start over again.