Of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies and Unintended Consequences

The world is filled with contradictions, dilemmas, paradoxes and conundrums.  Right and wrong are often elusive concepts in broader social, economic and political realms.  Those of us who find it appealing to consider or even pursue utopian dreams of world peace, social equality and other idyllic conditions are stymied by the frustrating facts of human behavior and the random and uncertain nature of human interactions. 

There are two very interesting phenomena that bedevil many efforts to make progress in the world – the self-fulfilling prophecy and the unintended consequence.  Even when people attempt in good faith to find a remedy to a problem their efforts often follow these paths with rather unpleasant results.

 

A great example of the self-fulfilling prophecy is the ‘prophecy’ by 2^nd amendment rights advocates that crime, civil unrest and violence are escalating in our society.  As a response to this prophecy, they energetically worked to make guns readily available, to minimize obstacles to gun purchases, and allow open carry of weapons in public places.  Gun manufacturers responded to their efforts by ramping up their production.

 

The number of guns on the street, in cars and in homes grew exponentially.  The proliferation of weapons among citizens meant that road rage, domestic violence, alcohol or drug-fueled arguments and random responses to insults or perceived injustices resulted in exchanges of gunfire.  The prophecy has become true because of the actions taken as a response to the prophecy, thus self-fulfilling it.

 

Another self-fulfilling prophecy is our fear of Russia and its expansionist efforts to regain its Soviet-era empire.  By overreacting to this threat and aggressively recruiting former Soviet-bloc countries to NATO, we have exacerbated Russia’s traditional paranoia about its borders and fears of isolation.  This is at least part of the cause of the current crisis in the Ukraine that may actually result in a Russian invasion with all of its frightening potential consequences.

 

The second phenomenon, sometimes called the ‘law of unintended consequences’, has been recognized as a potential pitfall of human endeavor for hundreds of years.  An act intended to accomplish something perceived as good or beneficial backfires at least partially and causes a subsequent and often greater harm.  Some of the most dramatic examples are the following:

 

• The draconian measures of the Versailles Treaty after World War I contributed significantly to economic and socio-political chaos, and subsequently the growth of fascism in Germany and Italy and the outbreak of World War II.  
• The prohibition of alcohol in the 1920’s led to a rapid growth in organized crime and lawlessness that has continued to the present day.
• The encouragement and military support of the Afghanistan mujahideen and their jihad against the Soviet Union in the 1980’s amplified and accelerated the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and extremism with all of its attendant consequences.  This one is a good example of another cautionary tale – the Frankenstein monster turning on its master!
• The at-the-time seemingly clever use of CIA agents posing as polio health workers to identify the location of Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan later led to the murder of numerous health workers in Pakistan and Afghanistan who were suspected of being in league with the CIA.
• When the Royalists took back Paris from the Communards after the short-lived socialist Commune of Paris in 1871, they massacred many in the streets and then later executed a large number to discourage future revolutionaries.  But the unintended consequence was that both Lenin and Mao viewed this as evidence that any potentially reactionary foes must be eliminated without mercy and both launched operations that killed massive numbers of bourgeoisie, intellectuals and the wealthy in a similarly gruesome manner.
• Another interesting one is the crusade against nuclear power waged in the USA and in parts of Europe during the 80’s and 90’s.  The idealistic fervor at that time to save the planet from nuclear meltdowns or radioactive waste had the unintended effect of accelerating an even more catastrophic environmental risk.  The ensuing near-total decline of nuclear power resulted in massive increases in carbon-producing power plants such as coal, oil and gas.  Ironically, there is a trend among some environmentalists today to support the return of nuclear power as a way to augment and provide stability to the less constant forms of renewable energy (wind, solar).
• The philanthropic efforts of NGOs, missionaries and other charitable organizations in Africa and other developing areas often have the unintended consequence of stifling local businesses or increasing corruption.

These are only a small sampling of self-fulfilling prophecies and unintended consequences.  Even when humans attempt to solve problems with relatively good faith, they often only succeed in creating new problems or setting up disasters for the future.

 

We have the historical knowledge and ability to recognize the dangers inherent in many of the political, military or economic decisions we make.  But our political process and the people who have the power to carry out our policies are rarely acting in fully thought-out and rational ways.  It seems we humans are doomed to make the same mistakes over and over again.