To Impeach or not to Impeach, That is the Question

First of all, let’s just acknowledge outright that Donald Trump is guilty of obstruction of justice by any reasonable interpretation of the law.  The Mueller report makes it very clear.  But Mueller also makes it clear that he doesn’t have the power to indict a sitting president.  So the question is whether congress, and more importantly in the long run, the people of the United States, believe that Donald Trump’s actions that have been publicized to date constitute ‘treason, bribery or high crimes and misdemeanors’ as defined by our constitution and therefore should be impeached.

Richard Nixon was never impeached but the House Committee on the Judiciary recommended three articles of impeachment – obstruction of justice, abuse of power and contempt for congress.  He resigned before impeachment could be voted upon in congress.

The three articles that were recommended for Nixon also seem tailor-made for Trump.  It is instructive to remember that Nixon seemed likely to escape the impeachment process for most of 1973 and half of 1974.  His supporters in congress, with their antenna tuned as always to their own self-interest and survival, initially ridiculed the investigation as a ‘witch hunt’.  Sound familiar?  

But when the white house recordings were released and the veritable ‘smoking gun’ of Nixon’s complicity in the cover-up, as well as a pathetic litany of paranoiac and dark ramblings of a clearly corrupt and depraved president were on display, the game was up.  The noble Republican senators and congressmen, now scrambling for cover and expressing righteous indignation, made it clear that resignation and a Ford pardon were the best deal Nixon could get.

So where does that leave Trump?  The Republican-led Senate is clearly not going to convict him in an impeachment trial unless something new and more damning emerges.  The Mueller Report was unable to prove collusion with the Russians on election interference, so he is absolved in their eyes. 

To them, the fact that he obstructed justice, paid off prostitutes with finance funds just before the election, belittled and insulted his way past their colleagues to obtain the nomination, and is now proving to be the most chaotic and divisive President in at least 150 years is not nearly enough to justify the potential damage to the Republican power base that his downfall might cause.  On the contrary, they are doubling down on Donald. They see more energy and momentum in their core constituency than they have seen in years, even if it is a rather dark and ominous kind of energy.

Time will tell whether more obviously impeachable offenses waft out of the dung heap that lies in Donald Trump’s wake.  Would anyone honestly be surprised to find some incredibly egregious offense lurking there?  Even his most ardent political sycophants are no doubt holding their breath (as well as their nose).  The gift of rationalization is one of the great survival skills that politicians cultivate.

It is hard to be patient in the face of Trump’s assault on civility and decency, but patience may yet bear fruit. Trump’s army of lawyers, tax accountants and various other protectors will eventually make a mistake in their cover-ups and even the slightest sparkle of truth from his misdeeds may be enough to start the unravelling.  And once it starts, oh what a show that will be!