Globalization - The Third Great Disequilibrium

One may look at human history through many different lenses.  There is a lens for the evolution of human myth and religion, one for human discovery and invention, one for art, literature and philosophy, a few for political and social transformations, and endless lenses for wars and conquest.

I am interested in viewing the world through a lens of disequilibrium –  a look at the periods of history where the world has been cast into paroxysms of chaos and uncertainty with cataclysmic results.  There are, of course, many cataclysmic and tragic events in history, so finding specific, causative points or periods of disequilibrium may seem like a fool’s errand.  And history is ultimately a continuum, so any effort to identify and separate historical trends and epochs is doomed to eye-rolling dismissal on one level.  However, it can be illuminating to look at events from different perspectives, so I will forge ahead with my own hypothesis of disequilibrium!

I do not classify run-of-the-mile empire building and conquest as disequilibrium, because the history of the world up until modern times has suffered a continuous stream of such events.  If one were only to measure death and destruction, then these empires and conquest would certainly be the focus.  But my objective is to understand other critical factors in the way that the world has evolved and I believe that some insight may be obtained by looking at the following periods of disequilibrium.

I propose that the first major period of global disequilibrium was the result of the collision of myths and religions.  Civilizations developed their myths and religions over many centuries starting at the very dawn of humankind, and the migration, proliferation and evangelism associated with individual religions is an interesting topic unto itself.  But the disequilibrium associated with the clash of these religions and myths mostly plays out over the several centuries from the crusades, through the spread of the Ottoman empire, through the voyages of discovery and periods of Christian and Muslim conquest, and ends with the reformation, the inquisition, the pogroms and the long European wars that resulted.

The chaos, conquests and carnage associated with the collision of myths and religions were a result of a rather unholy alliance of religious fervor and hunger for power and dominion. The conquistadors may have found part of their inspiration to conquer and plunder in their Christian beliefs, but it is likely that piety was more of a justification than a driving force, and that their lust for gold and other more worldly treasures was often the motivation.

The tally of death and destruction due to this disequilibrium is beyond measurement.  The brutal slaughter in the Holy Lands; the depopulation through both disease and murder of much of the Americas; the spread of slavery (due to both Muslim and Christian efforts); the savage colonial empires inflicted upon less technologically advanced peoples; the wholesale carnage of the Thirty Years War in Europe after the reformation which exacted a toll of up to 1/4 of the population; and many other religious or quasi-religious conflicts paint a portrait that is ironically the clear antithesis to the basic tenets of the religions and myths that authored it. 

These conflicts continue to haunt the earth and its peoples through periodic confrontations, but other disequilibriums have become more dominant and, in the case of globalization, incorporate religious conflict as part of their chaotic effect.

The second disequilibrium period is that of industrialization, which in my interpretation begins with the enlightenment and the age of scientific awakening, goes through the industrial revolution and the associated conflict between capitalism and Marxism and between religion and humanism, climaxes in the two world wars, and then ends with the cold war.

The seeds of the great conflagrations of the twentieth century were sown in the two hundred years preceding.  The opening of the human mind to science and to intellectual progress in non-religious directions, combined with the timeless and bottomless appetite that humans have for material wealth and power, led to dramatic changes in political, economic and social arrangements and consciousness, and ultimately to a rising tension between haves and have nots, between capitalists and workers, between the religious and the atheists, between aristocrats and the common people, between the lovers and the haters .  These tensions spawned the multiple political eruptions of nationalism, socialism, anarchism, fascism and populism that dictated relationships both within and between nations.

One of the most liberating, but also disorienting aspects of the age of industrialization was the scientific evidence – astronomical, geological, biological/evolutionary, psychological – that cast doubt upon the myths and religion that had dominated both personal and social behaviors since the dawn of humans.  Humanism and Darwinism were quickly interwoven into the dynamic forces of the various economic and political movements that swept the globe from the mid-nineteenth century up through the cold war.

The end of the cold war and the disintegration of the Soviet Union brought about the acceleration of what we now term ‘globalization’.  This is the third great disequilibrium.  Globalization takes on myriad forms, but it is generally characterized by an increasing interaction between states, cultures, religions, ethnic groups and economies.

The economic impact of globalization began in the 1980s as industrial nations began to utilize cheaper labor markets in developing nations.  This had the triple impact of increasing middle class opportunities in these developing nations, decreasing the price of many goods, as well as increasing profits for the international companies that outsourced the labor.  But lurking behind the euphoria of this classic capitalist strategy was the loss of middle class jobs to the industrial nations and the malaise that eventually resulted from steadily increasing wages for the elitist classes and stagnating wages for the middle classes or lower classes.

The second economic impact of globalization was the opportunity for developing nations such as China to take advantage of free trade and their own cheap labor pools to compete (sometimes with dubious tactics such as state-supported price cutting and the theft of intellectual property) successfully with their own manufactured goods in the global markets.  This upended the decades long dominance of Europe, the U.S. and Japan in world trade.

In theory, free trade should allow all nations to benefit in the long run with optimized production and pricing worldwide.  Additionally, free trade should allow developing nations to modernize and join the world economic force as a somewhat equal partner with the benefit of growing middle class populations.  But transitions are always difficult.

The second disrupting aspect of globalization is the relatively free and large flow of immigrants and refugees across borders and the growing diversity in formerly homogeneous populations.  This mixing of cultures, ethnic groups and religions is occurring at both the lower and upper ends of the social spectrum, though more heavily and dramatically at the lower end because of the economic and political crises across the globe.

The third dramatic impact of globalization is the international rise of women in social, educational, political and economic importance.  This trend emerged during the industrialization period, but is now sweeping across the world because of globalization and colliding against traditional cultural views of a woman’s place in society. 

Another major trend is the change in views on gender and sexuality.  Industrial nations have dramatically liberalized in their acceptance of homosexuality, abortion, family planning, gender variations and increased sexual activity.  The globalization of this trend is not assured, and it is a significant point of disequilibrium.

The last attribute of globalization that I will describe is the slow movement toward an international community that attempts to solve world problems and ease the transition to a more global society.  The U.N., multiple economic groups and forums, aid groups, special organizations for prosecuting war crimes, conventions to address climate change and joint peacekeeping operations are all examples of this aspect of globalization.  International efforts to ease economic hardship and famine, to apply pressure to countries to eliminate graft and corruption, to adopt joint agreements to combat climate change and promote free trade are all part of this somewhat awkward and often bureaucratic quest to create a global community.

These characteristics of globalization have created dramatic upheaval in many countries in the form of economic distress, as well as a multitude of reactionary ills – xenophobia, homophobia, misogyny, populism, nationalism and authoritarianism.  Industrial nations are not willing to cede their dominance or their independence, and accuse this world community of incompetence, bureaucracy and the cynical promotion of special interests.  Developing nations accuse the industrial powers of greedily clinging to their power and economic status and maintaining a colonial attitude to the rest of the world.

There is a growing concern that the formerly assumed triumphant progress of liberal democracy across the globe is now in serious jeopardy and that reactionary forces with authoritarian and nationalistic leaders such as one sees in the U.S. with Trump, in Poland, Hungary, Italy, Turkey, Brazil, the Philippines and other nations, are rapidly creating a dark counter flow propelled by fear and uncertainty.

As the final point of my analysis, I note that periods of disequilibrium are growing shorter and more dramatic in an exponential manner.  This is not surprising, as the pace of change in our world has been accelerating in a continuous, disquieting manner.  The first two periods of disequilibrium I described each had, slowly but surely, a positive, increasingly harmonious impact on our world, an encouraging sign of our ability to adapt to and embrace change.   Even at the dawn of the new millennium we had some reason to be optimistic about our future, as the new disequilibrium of globalization seemed to be manageable and appeared to be on a trajectory that would ultimately lead to a more just and equitable world.

But things have gone awry since that time.  It is certainly not clear how the current disequilibrium of globalization, which has emerged and had dramatic consequences in three short decades, will conclude.  It has the potential to unify the world in a common goal of peace, prosperity, harmony and cooperation.  However, it is not at all clear that it will achieve this lofty goal.  The changes may simply be too rapid for our human institutions to accommodate.  And if we are unable to stabilize our beautiful little planet in the next ten or twenty years, then the fourth disequilibrium, whatever it may be (climate collapse, automation and artificial intelligence, who can say?) may come upon us so quickly and mercilessly as to completely outrun our human ability to adapt.