One may look at human history through many different
lenses. There is a lens for the evolution of human myth and
religion, one for human discovery and invention, one for art, literature and
philosophy, a few for political and social transformations, and endless lenses
for wars and conquest.
I am interested in viewing the world through a lens of
disequilibrium – a look at the periods of history where the world
has been cast into paroxysms of chaos and uncertainty with cataclysmic
results. There are, of course, many cataclysmic and tragic events in
history, so finding specific, causative points or periods of disequilibrium may
seem like a fool’s errand. And history is ultimately a continuum, so
any effort to identify and separate historical trends and epochs is doomed to
eye-rolling dismissal on one level. However, it can be illuminating
to look at events from different perspectives, so I will forge ahead with my
own hypothesis of disequilibrium!
I do not classify run-of-the-mile empire building and conquest
as disequilibrium, because the history of the world up until modern times has
suffered a continuous stream of such events. If one were only to
measure death and destruction, then these empires and conquest would certainly
be the focus. But my objective is to understand other critical factors
in the way that the world has evolved and I believe that some insight may be
obtained by looking at the following periods of disequilibrium.
I propose that the first major period of global disequilibrium
was the result of the collision of myths and religions. Civilizations
developed their myths and religions over many centuries starting at the very
dawn of humankind, and the migration, proliferation and evangelism associated
with individual religions is an interesting topic unto itself. But
the disequilibrium associated with the clash of these religions and myths
mostly plays out over the several centuries from the crusades, through the
spread of the Ottoman empire, through the voyages of discovery and periods of
Christian and Muslim conquest, and ends with the reformation, the inquisition,
the pogroms and the long European wars that resulted.
The chaos, conquests and carnage associated with the collision
of myths and religions were a result of a rather unholy alliance of religious
fervor and hunger for power and dominion. The conquistadors may have found
part of their inspiration to conquer and plunder in their Christian beliefs,
but it is likely that piety was more of a justification than a driving force,
and that their lust for gold and other more worldly treasures was often the
motivation.
The tally of death and destruction due to this disequilibrium is
beyond measurement. The brutal slaughter in the Holy Lands; the
depopulation through both disease and murder of much of the Americas; the
spread of slavery (due to both Muslim and Christian efforts); the savage
colonial empires inflicted upon less technologically advanced peoples; the
wholesale carnage of the Thirty Years War in Europe after the reformation which
exacted a toll of up to 1/4 of the population; and many other religious or
quasi-religious conflicts paint a portrait that is ironically the clear
antithesis to the basic tenets of the religions and myths that authored
it.
These conflicts continue to haunt the earth and its peoples
through periodic confrontations, but other disequilibriums have become more
dominant and, in the case of globalization, incorporate religious conflict as
part of their chaotic effect.
The second disequilibrium period is that of industrialization,
which in my interpretation begins with the enlightenment and the age of
scientific awakening, goes through the industrial revolution and the associated
conflict between capitalism and Marxism and between religion and humanism,
climaxes in the two world wars, and then ends with the cold war.
The seeds of the great conflagrations of the twentieth century
were sown in the two hundred years preceding. The opening of the
human mind to science and to intellectual progress in non-religious directions,
combined with the timeless and bottomless appetite that humans have for
material wealth and power, led to dramatic changes in political, economic and
social arrangements and consciousness, and ultimately to a rising tension
between haves and have nots, between capitalists and workers, between the
religious and the atheists, between aristocrats and the common people, between
the lovers and the haters . These tensions spawned the multiple
political eruptions of nationalism, socialism, anarchism, fascism and populism
that dictated relationships both within and between nations.
One of the most liberating, but also disorienting aspects of the
age of industrialization was the scientific evidence – astronomical,
geological, biological/evolutionary, psychological – that cast doubt upon the
myths and religion that had dominated both personal and social behaviors since
the dawn of humans. Humanism and Darwinism were quickly interwoven
into the dynamic forces of the various economic and political movements that
swept the globe from the mid-nineteenth century up through the cold war.
The end of the cold war and the disintegration of the Soviet
Union brought about the acceleration of what we now term
‘globalization’. This is the third great
disequilibrium. Globalization takes on myriad forms, but it is
generally characterized by an increasing interaction between states, cultures,
religions, ethnic groups and economies.
The economic impact of globalization began in the 1980s as
industrial nations began to utilize cheaper labor markets in developing nations. This had the triple impact of increasing
middle class opportunities in these developing nations, decreasing the price of
many goods, as well as increasing profits for the international companies that
outsourced the labor. But lurking behind
the euphoria of this classic capitalist strategy was the loss of middle class
jobs to the industrial nations and the malaise that eventually resulted from
steadily increasing wages for the elitist classes and stagnating wages for the
middle classes or lower classes.
The second economic impact of globalization was the opportunity
for developing nations such as China to take advantage of free trade and their
own cheap labor pools to compete (sometimes with dubious tactics such as
state-supported price cutting and the theft of intellectual property) successfully
with their own manufactured goods in the global markets. This upended the decades long dominance of
Europe, the U.S. and Japan in world trade.
In theory, free trade should allow all nations to benefit in the
long run with optimized production and pricing worldwide. Additionally, free trade should allow
developing nations to modernize and join the world economic force as a somewhat
equal partner with the benefit of growing middle class populations. But transitions are always difficult.
The second disrupting aspect of globalization is the relatively
free and large flow of immigrants and refugees across borders and the growing
diversity in formerly homogeneous populations.
This mixing of cultures, ethnic groups and religions is occurring at
both the lower and upper ends of the social spectrum, though more heavily and
dramatically at the lower end because of the economic and political crises
across the globe.
The third dramatic impact of globalization is the international
rise of women in social, educational, political and economic importance. This trend emerged during the
industrialization period, but is now sweeping across the world because of
globalization and colliding against traditional cultural views of a woman’s
place in society.
Another major trend is the change in views on gender and sexuality. Industrial nations have dramatically
liberalized in their acceptance of homosexuality, abortion, family planning,
gender variations and increased sexual activity. The globalization of this trend is not assured,
and it is a significant point of disequilibrium.
The last attribute of globalization that I will describe is the
slow movement toward an international community that attempts to solve world
problems and ease the transition to a more global society. The U.N., multiple economic groups and
forums, aid groups, special organizations for prosecuting war crimes,
conventions to address climate change and joint peacekeeping operations are all
examples of this aspect of globalization.
International efforts to ease economic hardship and famine, to apply
pressure to countries to eliminate graft and corruption, to adopt joint
agreements to combat climate change and promote free trade are all part of this
somewhat awkward and often bureaucratic quest to create a global community.
These characteristics of globalization have created dramatic
upheaval in many countries in the form of economic distress, as well as a
multitude of reactionary ills – xenophobia, homophobia, misogyny, populism,
nationalism and authoritarianism. Industrial nations are not willing to
cede their dominance or their independence, and accuse this world community of
incompetence, bureaucracy and the cynical promotion of special interests. Developing nations accuse the industrial
powers of greedily clinging to their power and economic status and maintaining a
colonial attitude to the rest of the world.
There is a growing concern that the formerly assumed triumphant
progress of liberal democracy across the globe is now in serious jeopardy and
that reactionary forces with authoritarian and nationalistic leaders such as
one sees in the U.S. with Trump, in Poland, Hungary, Italy, Turkey, Brazil, the
Philippines and other nations, are rapidly creating a dark counter flow
propelled by fear and uncertainty.
As the final point of my analysis, I note that periods of
disequilibrium are growing shorter and more dramatic in an exponential
manner. This is not surprising, as the pace of change in our world
has been accelerating in a continuous, disquieting manner. The first
two periods of disequilibrium I described each had, slowly but surely, a
positive, increasingly harmonious impact on our world, an encouraging sign of
our ability to adapt to and embrace change. Even at the dawn
of the new millennium we had some reason to be optimistic about our future, as
the new disequilibrium of globalization seemed to be manageable and appeared to
be on a trajectory that would ultimately lead to a more just and equitable
world.
But things have gone awry since that time. It is
certainly not clear how the current disequilibrium of globalization, which has
emerged and had dramatic consequences in three short decades, will
conclude. It has the potential to unify the world in a common goal
of peace, prosperity, harmony and cooperation. However, it is not at
all clear that it will achieve this lofty goal. The changes may
simply be too rapid for our human institutions to accommodate. And
if we are unable to stabilize our beautiful little planet in the next ten or
twenty years, then the fourth disequilibrium, whatever it may be (climate
collapse, automation and artificial intelligence, who can say?) may come upon
us so quickly and mercilessly as to completely outrun our human ability to
adapt.
