A Logical Look at the Kavanaugh Case

It is almost impossible to be objective about the Kavanaugh situation because of the intense partisanship passions it evokes.  I will confess outright that I am against Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court because I worry that it will secure a conservative majority for much too long a period of time.  However, I have tried to view the current issue through a lens of objectivity to try to understand what is the most likely version of the truth.

I do believe there is a way to logically evaluate the validity of the claims against Kavanaugh for sexual assault and come to certain conclusions.  Whether those conclusions disqualify Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court is a question that must then be evaluated

It is simply illogical to believe that Dr. Ford has somehow fabricated her story.  There are multiple reasons why this does not make sense. 

1. What woman would subject herself to the slander, denigration and possible danger that are absolute certain ramifications of her testimony unless she believed the story to be true
2. She related the story to multiple people long before Brett Kavanaugh was nominated (this is clearly the most powerful of the reasons and makes it essentially certain that some form of this event happened).
3. Her background does not indicate anything that would prompt her to lie or claim the spotlight under such potentially disastrous circumstances for herself and her family.
4. There is enough anecdotal evidence of drunken and nasty behavior in Kavanaugh’s background to imply that he was capable of doing something similar.

If it is reasonable to believe that she is being honest and telling the truth as she remembers it, then that means that one of two things is possible:

1. Brett Kavanaugh was so drunk that he doesn’t remember the event.
2.  Brett Kavanaugh remembers the event and is lying.

Had Brett Kavanaugh said that he remembered the event and either made heartfelt apologies or questioned the details, then he would certainly have been pilloried by many, but at least he would be able to potentially claim that a youthful, drunken mistake should not stand in the way of his nomination.

But he did not acknowledge the event as having occurred, so now we must believe that either Kavanaugh was so drunk that night that he cannot remember what he did or we must come to the conclusion that he is lying.

For someone of Kavanaugh’s distinguished reputation, it is very difficult to admit a tragic flaw or a horrible mistake in the past.  One sees this again and again – pride goeth before a fall.  The calculus for Kavanaugh is the following:

1. Admit the mistake, apologize profusely and question the details at the same time, hoping that the nomination will not be withdrawn.
2. Lie and double down on the denial, rallying the troops to make the issue more of a partisan battle than a question of character.

My guess is that Kavanaugh is lying, though we may never know.  It is a common thing for powerful men to lie when up against a wall and faced with the first whiff of humiliation in a long and storied career.  And furthermore, I find it hard to believe that Kavanaugh was so drunk that he could not remember what happened.  It would be interesting to hear scientific research on how likely that kind of memory loss would be.

So then, faced with two rather unsettling alternatives for Brett Kavanaugh’s actions, what should the Senate do?  In my opinion, he is now tainted, and another candidate should be found.  And I say this knowing that Trump will simply nominate another conservative candidate and that ultimately a conservative will be on the bench.

But if a conservative judge must be appointed, then I would rather have a conservative who never assaulted a woman, even when drunk, and who does not hold his reputation in such high esteem that he will brazenly lie to protect it.