The Technology Delusions

You can’t stop progress, or so the saying goes.  The rate of change in our world is astonishing, and seems to be ever accelerating.  If one looks at the almost three hundred years since the start of the first industrial revolution (generally dated at about 1760) it is clear that things have changed at a dizzying pace.

Almost every facet of human civilization has changed dramatically during this time period – government, education, public health, medicine, transportation, war, agriculture, manufacturing.  Scientific discoveries, engineering and technological advances were at the heart of much of that change.  

 

Can we also say that the quality of human existence has improved in step with this progression?  How does one measure the quality of people’s lives?  In developed nations life expectancy increased dramatically since the start of this period, from an average in the mid 30’s in the early 1800’s to the high 70’s or even low 80’s today.  The average number of hours in a work week has also declined significantly.  It is difficult to generalize, but it appears that the type of work and the dangers involved have also improved over time for much of the population, although the drudgery of today’s manufacturing and service jobs might not be substantially better than the work of the past.

 

In terms of material wealth and comfort, there has been a similarly dramatic increase over the timeframe of technological advancement for much of the world.  Housing, appliances, vehicles, clothing, recreation, sports and many other aspects of daily life have become easier, and offer more variety for leisure time and less onerous daily living conditions.

 

However, these improvements and achievements are not enjoyed universally.  The lower economic strata of society, and indeed most of the developing world, still struggle in a life that is often far from comfortable or happy.

 

The economics of capitalism, which have driven the technological revolution from its beginnings, claim that the most efficient way for all to benefit is for unregulated self-interest and the profit motive to drive all economic activity.  The reigning metaphor is that of a rising tide lifting all boats.

 

But have we now reached a point of diminishing returns on our technology investment and the unfettered free market?  The last 40 years have seen little success in solving many of the economic and social issues that continue to plague us, and despite the rise to middle class of many in parts of Asia, the developing world still lags  far behind and seems permanently stymied in its attempt to ascend.

 

The ongoing computer information age and the burgeoning AI and space races do not appear likely to contribute to a more salutary or stable world situation.  If anything, they have exacerbated conflicts and increased inequality both within and between nations.

 

The massive accumulation of wealth by a relatively small cadre of the super-rich may provide ample funding for new technology, but will these technological advances really make a positive difference in the world?  Or will they simply perpetuate the status quo or lead to more discord?

 

The first delusion of technology is that every new gadget or invention is worth pursuing; that every new idea must be exploited to its full potential; that if something is possible, then it must be realized, regardless of the cost or the missed opportunities.  The second delusion is that technological advancement must continue to accelerate, that it must be funded and hurried along as quickly as possible.  This, of course, is a consequence of the fierce competition between companies and nations. 

 

And the third delusion is that technology will always bring good things.  The truth is that new technology brings change, both good and bad.  The computer revolution, the Internet, the smartphone and social media have brought wonderful new connections and capabilities, but they have a dark side that becomes ever more striking.  Have our lives truly been made more fulfilling by this technology?  Are we any happier or more well-adjusted?

 

And what does the future hold for us?  The mad rush to employ AI everywhere and the spectacular self-driving vehicles and new space craft may delight us with their ingenuity, but will any of it lead to a better world for the 8 billion people that are trying to come to terms with climate change, continuing inequality, disease, political conflict, despotism and war (not to mention an earth that is rapidly filling up with our detritus and becoming an ecological disaster).

 

Technical progress is a genie that will never go back into the bottle.  But we do have the power to make different wish requests of this genie.  If we do not choose wisely, we may find ourselves starting again from square one.

I am Firing My AI Agent!

Is there anyone not sick and tired of hearing about AI?  If we are on the edge of humanity’s destruction. please just get it over with and stop talking about it.

I imagine there are wonderful things that AI will do in this world, or at least that is what every self-pronounced expert is telling us.  And I also can believe that there are great dangers lurking in the shadows as AI evolves.  It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to envision all sorts of different outcomes of the global race to dominate in AI.  And given the current adversarial nature of politics and the world community, the direction that competition will take could be catastrophic.

 

Still, who knows, maybe AI will come up with a great plan for dealing with climate change, or map out a cure for cancer, or solve the thorny issue of how to build a fusion power plant.  Maybe AI agents will act as mediators and negotiators between warring countries or design a worldwide trade policy that benefits everyone equally, or solve the developing nation debt problem.  I kind of doubt it, but we can always hope!

 

But listen, Mr. AI Agent, keep your nose out of my business!  I don’t want a personal AI agent telling me everything I should be doing, planning my day, measuring my progress, feeding me information, advising me on what to wear or when to exercise. I don't want an AI agent chastising me for sleeping poorly or not moving often enough or not stopping to rest while driving. I don’t want an AI agent writing my blogs, giving me song ideas, completing my sentences, or jogging my memory.  I don’t want an AI agent suggesting future purchases I should consider, or advising me on career choices.  (OK, I’m retired so that isn’t really relevant).

 

I spent my whole career in technology, and I fully appreciate the amazing advances that computers and information technology have made.  But I detest technology’s intrusion into my life and the assumption that I must purchase every new gadget and keep up with every new trend in social media. And I can’t even imagine what the raging juggernaut of AI will force upon us in the coming years.  

 

At the risk of seeming curmudgeonly or even worse, old, I proclaim that I will fiercely resist any AI agent that comes my way, no matter what promises it makes of improving my life.  I will fire the damn thing and, if necessary, throw my phone and iPad into the lake.  This, I do solemnly swear! 

The Somewhat Sisyphean Nature of Human Existence

Recently I had a significant period of time where I stopped playing guitar – a couple of week’s vacation and then a few weeks focused on a very joyful event: the birth of our grandson, Oliver.  When I started to play again this week the callouses on my fingers were pretty much gone and I had to start the mildly painful process of getting them back again.

The Greek myth of Sisyphus depicts a man forced by the Gods to endlessly roll an immense boulder up a hill only for it to roll back down again.  The myth is seen by some as a symbol of the absurdity of existence or the futility of human striving.  But I see a lot of my life in the myth of Sisyphus and I don’t regard it as necessarily absurd or futile, though it is sometimes frustrating.

 

The truth is that I find myself repeating a lot of the efforts of my life.  I go to the gym for a period of time and then take a break or get injured.  When I return, I have to go through the process of building up my stamina and strength again.  The same goes for running (back when I used to run) or cycling.  My many years of soccer waxed and waned and I found my skill level had to be re-acquired through practice and play each time I took a significant break.

 

I am currently studying French and Spanish, and I am slowly building competence in listening, reading and speaking.  But any time away from these studies causes the boulder to roll back a bit and I must re-commit myself to the task and build up my comprehension again.

 

The same goes for many other areas of study or knowledge.  I find my grasp of history fades and I will periodically refresh it through reading books and doing Internet research.  I have learned and re-learned mathematics and physics many, many times as the need has arisen (going back for a masters then a PhD; teaching IB math; tutoring in math and physics).  

 

Or consider the routine tasks of life – cleaning the house, maintaining the landscaping, even conducting one’s daily hygiene.  These are all Sisyphean tasks.  The house is clean, then slowly gets dirty.  The lawn is cut, the grass grows back.  The beard is shaven, it returns.

 

The second law of thermodynamics states that the entropy of an isolated system left to spontaneous evolution cannot decrease with time.  Entropy is a measure of disorder.  It takes energy to make order out of disorder, knowledge out of ignorance and skill out of incompetence.  

 

We supply that energy to all the different facets of our lives and we proudly observe the order that results, but inevitably the boulder rolls back a bit, or even all the way and we must exert ourselves anew.  There may be a few places where we are able to hold the boulder at bay, or a few more challenging hills where our efforts continue to push the boulder ever higher, but at some point even these will lapse and we will have to pick ourselves up and make the effort to regain the ground we have lost.

 

There is an element of futility, and even absurdity, in all of this, and one is occasionally struck by the thought that life consists of simply going through the same motions again and again.  

But I try to fight this inclination to demean our efforts.  There is nobility in work and activity, even if it is partly Sisyphean.  We commune with the rest of the world and with nature in our quest to make order from disorder.  There is no shame in repetition or even drudgery if it is done in good faith and with purpose.  Perhaps there is no higher calling.  And, of course, there are always new boulders to push to keep things interesting!