These days I vacillate between a deep fear that an ever more likely second Trump presidency will usher in a catastrophic change in American society and a more optimistic belief that our institutions are strong enough to withstand the assault that Trump’s authoritarianism will no doubt bring.
For the last eight years I have struggled to comprehend how people can fail to see how flawed and dangerous Trump is. But he is polling higher than ever in Republican primary polls (60%) and it is important to understand who supports him and why. What is the coalition that makes Trump’s path to the presidency not only possible, but close to inevitable?
The first group is the social conservatives, led by Christian evangelicals and Catholic and Mormon conservatives. These people are horrified by what they feel is the rapid decline of morality in American society and they attribute this to lower church attendance, liberal educational institutions and cultural degradation in films, TV, music and literature. They represent about one third of the Republicans likely to vote for Trump. They believe that Trump is the only candidate, and many would say divinely ordained, who can stem this tide of cultural and religious degradation.
The second group is the group that interprets the years since the pandemic as an economic failure caused by democratic policies. This is the classic ‘vote your pocketbook’ group, but one that has been indoctrinated in the conservative mantras of lower taxes, fewer entitlements, less government and less regulation. They blame the Biden administration for the post-pandemic inflation and the current economic malaise, even though the USA is clearly less impacted than any other developed nation. This group has an increasingly troubling percentage of blue-collar workers who no longer see the democratic party as their champion.
The third group is the ‘never vote democratic’ group, a traditional republican group that may not be enthusiastic about Trump, but will nevertheless vote for him, knowing that he will protect their economic status and power, and mistakenly believing that he can be controlled.
A fourth group is a group defined by their disenchantment, a group that has seen no improvement in their quality of life in the past 3 or 4 years and is willing to vote for Trump out of desperation. This group may bring in Hispanic and African-American voters that would normally have voted democratic.
The final group is a group that is panicked about world affairs – the China threat, the Russian threat, immigration and other somewhat abstract yet foreboding dangers on the horizon. In uncertain times, a ‘strongman’ can appear to be an asset to those with a weak comprehension of history.
The current moment in human history has many parallels to the 1930’s – economic malaise, political turmoil, cultural change and uncertainty. Democracy and consensual government can appear to be incapable of meeting the challenges of a troubled period. Paralysis of democratic institutions may appear to beckon a stronger hand at the wheel. But the consequences of moving toward authoritarian rule and a black-and-white interpretation of problems are inevitably much more pernicious than the illness they set out to cure.
