As an avid reader of history, I look for clues in the past to understand what is going on today. George Santayana said that ‘those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it’. But the past has many different outcomes for seemingly similar trends, so how can one attempt to predict the future and respond appropriately?
The aggressive authoritarianism of Donald Trump and his administration appears to be unique in the history of the United States. There have been other periods where presidents have acted forcefully and tested the limits of presidential power. Andrew Jackson, Teddy Roosevelt and FDR are examples. However, the vengeful nature of Trump’s authoritarianism, his pathological narcissism and his attempts to vilify all opponents and create a climate of fear are substantially different from these other presidential terms.
Are we on a path to repeat the fascist nightmares of the 1930’s? Will Trump use his absurd depiction of the internal dangers of the radical left and crime-ridden cities to declare martial law and push us toward a true police state?
The periods of 1919-1921 and the Depression saw the country lurch toward dangerous and unstable economic, political and social circumstances. But in both cases, the crises passed and the country returned to a state of equilibrium. In both politics and economics, which find themselves inextricably linked, there is a dynamic that is similar to the motion of a pendulum. There is movement from the moderate center to a more extreme position, followed by a return to the center and a move toward the other extreme.
The pendulum swing is a cycle of politics, just as the economic patterns of inflation, unemployment, and job and GDP growth go through their various stages. You have a Reagan/Bush cycle followed by a Clinton cycle, followed by Bush and then Obama. This has been a healthy if imperfect way for US politics to find compromise and make slow but steady progress toward its lofty goals as a society.
As the pendulum swings in one direction, the opposing side depicts the motion as dangerous and extreme. Politics is a game of hyperbole and drama.
But history is also full of times when the pendulum swing becomes too violent and there is no return to equilibrium; where the cycle morphs into a spiral of ever-increasing radicalism, hostility and, ultimately, violence.
What causes this departure from the normal cycle? Are there specific events, crises or conditions that predispose a nation to begin falling into this deadly spiral? In the 1930’s there was a poisonous mix of desperate economic times, a general sense of alienation among large portions of the population, strongly nurtured grievances from the first world war and demonic, yet charismatic strongmen. There was also a cynical acquiescence by key business, political and military leaders who saw the short-term upside for themselves and ignored or rationalized the clear dangers.
In Germany, a single event – the Reichstag fire – gave the new chancellor Hitler the opportunity to suspend most civil liberties, including freedom of the press, freedom of expression, habeas corpus, and to authorize monitoring of the post and telephone. By claiming the act was evidence of a widespread communist plot to overthrow the government he convinced the German president, von Hindenburg, to issue the decree. This dramatically propelled the German state away from any semblance of democracy and into a police state and dictatorship.
We do not have a desperate economic situation, though there is a huge disparity in wealth and income that is becoming ever more toxic in our society. And it is not out of the realm of possibility that a major recession and economic shock will come in the next few years.
Trump has already fabricated the myth of a widespread conspiracy of the radical left and of crime-ridden cities, and has taken first steps toward a police state by use of military forces in democrat-governed cities and by transforming ICE into a huge paramilitary force. He has attempted to rally the military around the concept of using domestic conflict as a training ground. And he has instructed the justice department to target so-called radical left groups and their supporters. It is not difficult to imagine a single dramatic event similar to the Charlie Kirk assassination serving as a Trumpian Reichstag fire.
It is also very possible that we are truly in the steepest part of the Trump pendulum swing, and that the reaction of the nation will be to reject his extremist agenda and bring us back toward the center, presumably by significant shifts in the midterm elections.
The difference between a pendulum swing and a death spiral may be a set of random events or an insidious, orchestrated coup that creeps up on us and catches us off guard. But at least half the country is on alert now and profoundly opposed to the Trump administration, so if the spiral is to occur it will be ushered in with the kind of sad, feeble reluctance to make a strong, timely stand that is the Achilles heel of comfortable human beings.