Anti-Semitism vs Anti-Israelism

Big news!  The MAGA world has become the noble standard-bearer for the fight against antisemitism.  Hurray, hurray!  Their righteous fury over Palestinian protests and campus efforts to defund America’s support of Israel is a sign of their deep affection for Jewish people and their unyielding support for non-discrimination and tolerance, right?  Yeah, right.

The Trump regime, Christian evangelicals and other MAGA types have become strange bedfellows with the Jewish world and Israel.  Jews might be wise to view this passionate embrace with a bit of skepticism, as fervent Christians have not historically been the best supporters of Jewish people (see the inquisition, the pogroms, the holocaust and a long list of other less-than-affectionate treatments).

 

Christian evangelicals are supportive of Israel primarily because the return of the Jewish people to the holy land is seen as a pre-cursor to the second coming of Jesus and the Armageddon.  Christians are also not big fans of Islam, which may play a role in their newfound Jewish affinity.

 

As for Trump and the political right, their crusading efforts on behalf of Israel’s war in Gaza and their indignation over supposed antisemitic trends in American society are simply a way to demonize the left and provide a means for launching their war against universities.  They couldn’t care less about Jews or tolerance or antisemitism.

 

I understand the deep-seated fear in Jewish people of any hint of antisemitism, and their paranoia about their security, whether here in America, in Europe or in Israel.  The history of antisemitism is long and painful.

 

But here is the thing:  It is not unreasonable to believe that Israel has gone far beyond its right to defend itself in inflicting devastation and horror on Gaza.  There is an element of cry-wolf in Israel’s painting itself as constantly in existential danger.  Israel is the most powerful nation in the middle East and perhaps one of the most powerful in the world.  Its military and intelligence services are incredibly capable and it also has nuclear weapons.  It has more or less wiped out Hezbollah and it has made Iran look weak and impotent in every encounter.

 

Israel has become a bully as regards the Palestinian territories and people.  Its settler-dominated government and increasingly extremist political slant is clearly intent on seizing as much of Gaza as possible and continuing to steal land and settle the West Bank.  It has been building settlements in the West Bank continuously since the 1967 invasion and there are now over 700,000 settlers in this territory that the UN and most nations consider occupied land.

 

Jewish people have associated Israel with Jewish identity from the start.  Jewish people in the United States embrace this association.  Therefore, it is not hard to understand why anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian sentiments are also conflated with anti-Jewish feelings.  If I am criticizing Israel’s actions, am I antisemitic?  If I am calling for an end to military support of Israel until it ends the war in Gaza am I pro-Hamas?  A large number of Israelis and Jews in the United States have voiced similar feelings.

 

It is absurd to categorize the majority of anti-Israel protests as antisemitic.  And it is dangerous to use a pretense of protecting Jews from antisemitism to prosecute or deport protestors on campus or anywhere else.  America is at its strongest when it embraces free speech and the opportunity for competing views to express themselves, even in fairly energetic protests and marches.  The Trump regime has all the characteristics of a nascent police state, and this fake concern about antisemitism is a ruse that must be fought on every level before it assumes even more frightening forms.

If Push Came to Shove

The Trump regime has shown a willingness, a delight even, to cross the boundaries of legality, constitutionality and ethics.  Trump believes that he is empowered to do just about anything he pleases, and this time he has filled the government with lackeys who will carry out his every wish without hesitation.

The only thing that has stood in his way up to now is the judiciary.  Even Trump-appointed judges have shown some level of integrity and opposed his more egregious executive orders.  This has irritated Trump and his minions to no small degree, and they have already indicated that they are willing to bypass or ignore court decisions if they see fit.

 

Thus, the question arises: who can stop Trump if he chooses to go full dictator and ignores court rulings? Given the current obsequious nature of the republican-controlled congress, there is little chance that they will intercede or attempt to rein him in.  The only force left that is capable of stopping him would be the American people.  I believe there will be mass protests if Trump openly defies the courts.

 

But Trump has already indicated that he would eagerly deploy the armed forces if significant protests occur. Therefore, the most important question we may face in the months ahead is whether the US military will allow itself to be used by Trump to quell protests in a situation where he has clearly violated the constitution and any reasonable interpretation of presidential authority and ethics.

 

The military is expected to be apolitical.  It has both civilian and military leadership, with the President being the commander-in-chief.  But every officer in the military takes an oath of office to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.  In theory, if there is a conflict between the President and the Constitution, their path is clear: to protect and defend the constitution.

 

The military is conservative and masculine by nature.  Does this imply that it will tend to be supportive of the Trump ethos?  If one believes the Hollywood blockbuster version of the military, it would not be difficult to imagine the military falling in line with Trump’s authoritarian dictates.  But as a former military officer and the son, grandson and nephew of Naval Academy graduates, I have a very strong opinion that contradicts this assumption.

 

For US military officers, character, leadership qualities and discipline are the most important personal attributes.  Military officers detest poor character.  They admire honesty, modesty, integrity and ethical behavior.  

 

Trump’s macho version of America may appeal to the common soldier, but his character flaws, his lying, his boasting, his preening, his immorality, his lack of ethics and his arrogance are red flags to military leaders.  They will support him up to a point simply because he is the commander-in-chief, but I firmly believe that they will refuse to comply with orders to take arms against the American people if Trump has violated the constitution.

 

I sense that Trump’s momentum is already beginning to wane and that the consequences of his chaotic first months and his economic missteps will soon manifest themselves and prevent the worst from happening.  But I also am confident that if push comes to shove, the American military will demonstrate its true nature and integrity and oppose the first American tyrant.

Budget Thoughts

The ‘big, beautiful bill’ that Trump is pushing through congress is on its way to the senate, where, unlike the house, there is a tiny bit of spine left in republicans and the possibility that there may be significant changes before it becomes law.  But that is probably a bit of wistful optimism.

What does this bill accomplish?  First, it preserves the tax cuts that a republican-dominated congress pushed through under Trump in 2017.  These tax cuts were passed with the promise that they would stimulate growth and more than compensate for their cost.  The deficit grew from 0.67T in 2017 to 0.98T in 2019, so this was clearly wrong.

 

Republican orthodoxy has always insisted that tax cuts will stimulate economic growth and tax increases will hurt the economy.  The logic behind this is that tax cuts put more money in people’s pockets to spend and also to invest.  But the truth is harder to discern and most economists disagree with this assumption. 

And here is an observation that is anecdotal, but very likely valid:  a large percentage of my generation, the baby boomers, is much wealthier than my parents were.  We have more money, more wealth than we really deserve to have.  We don't need new tax cuts. If you look around at today's opulent homes, the restaurants that are full every night of the week, the travel and shopping catalogs that bulge in our mailboxes and the massive cars that we drive, it is all too clear that a significant part of our society is disproportionately wealthy when compared to the bottom half.

 

If most of the tax cuts go to the wealthy, who already have high net incomes and extensive investment portfolios, then how is that money actually used?  Do the rich buy more and more things and stimulate the economy?  Do they invest in more start-ups?  It seems to me that there is a point of saturation, where additional income and wealth to the top 20% have little positive effect on the economy and merely ratchet up the equity and real estate markets, where the rich store their vast wealth.  

 

What seems more likely to stimulate the economy is putting money into the hands of the bottom 50%, whether through tax breaks, social programs, infrastructure improvements or redistribution scenarios.  That group will definitely spend all of that money.

 

The Trump budget also seeks to somewhat compensate for the tax cuts by slashing various so-called entitlement programs, with Medicaid and SNAP being two of the biggest targets.  These programs have long been vilified by the right.  The impact of these reductions on poverty, health, hunger and basic social safety net issues could be disastrous, but the MAGA world believes that fraud and abuse are rampant in these programs and is rabid to push their cost-cutting agenda as a far as possible while they still have majorities in congress.

 

This ‘big, beautiful bill’ has a deficit price tag of $3.8T over the period from 2026-2034 (non-partisan analysis from the congressional budget office), which is ironic, considering the hysteria from the right during the election cycle over the national debt.  But this kind of hypocrisy is not new – Reagan, both Bushes, and Trump all increased the budget deficit after railing against it to win the office.

 

The budget decreases in tax revenue will no doubt decrease the IRS budget further, which will allow the estimated $600B of annual individual tax cheating to continue.  Furthermore, there appears to be no will to force corporations to pay taxes on profits that they earn in the USA but manage to transfer to low-tax havens like Ireland.

 

So, all in all a pretty amazing level of incoherent nonsense in this budget.  But all a budget has to have to make it big and beautiful for the MAGA world is the words ‘tax cuts’ and ‘defense increases’.  A big, beautiful golden dome is the cherry on top.  It should complete our isolationism and protectionism.  But beware, we don’t exist in a vacuum and the way that the rest of the world reacts to our lunacy may yet rain heavily on the MAGA parade.